000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170311
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Mar 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 04N95W. The ITCZ 
continues from 04N95W to 04N110W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection from 04N to 06N between 83W and 
85W. Scattered moderate convection also from 02N to 10N94W and
120W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

1017 mb high pressure centered over Guadalupe Island is
maintaining gentle to moderate breezes across the offshore waters
of Mexico, except for possible fresh winds near Cabo Corrientes.
Waveheights may still be near 8 ft in the Revillagigedo Islands
area, but slight to moderate combined seas are evident elsewhere. 

For the forecast, high pressure over the eastern Pacific will 
maintain gentle to moderate breezes across the Mexican offshore 
waters into Sun. Expect moderate to fresh NW winds from the 
central Gulf of California to Cabo Corrientes Sun through Tue as 
the high pressure builds west of the region and low pressure 
deepens over central Mexico. These winds will diminish through 
late Tue. Farther south, fresh to strong gap will start by late 
Mon over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, associated with a cold front 
moving into southern Mexico. The fresh to strong gap winds and 
associated rough seas will diminish across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec by late Wed. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Divergence aloft associated with and upper low centered north of
the Galapagos Islands is supporting clusters of showers and
thunderstorms to the east of Cocos Island. Farther north, fresh
gap winds persist across the Gulf of Papagayo, a combination of
local drainage effects and a relatively tight gradient related to
high pressure north of the area. Seas are 3 to 5 ft north of 05N,
and 5 to 7 ft primarily in southerly swell. An altimeter pass
indicated seas to 8 ft are very close to the south of the 
offshore waters around the Galapagos in the southern swell.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue 
to support pulses of fresh northeast to east winds in the 
Papagayo region through late Mon, then possibly returning Wed 
night. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will continue 
elsewhere through the forecast period. Farther south, southerly 
swell reaching 8 ft will persist through Mon from offshore 
Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A dissipating stationary front extends from 30N137W to 26N140W. 
Waveheights of 8 to 10 ft accompany this front, primarily due to 
NW swell propagating into the region. Combined seas are 6 to 8 ft
elsewhere due to an earlier group of NW swell lingering over the
region mainly west of 105W. A component of southerly swell is 
mixing with the NW swell south of 03N between 105W and 115W. 
Shorter period wind waves from moderate trade wind flow is also 
mixing with the NW swell over the waters from 05N to 15N W of 
110W. 

For the forecast, low pressure may develop near 30N140W by late 
Sun along the remnants of the frontal boundary, with winds 
increasing to fresh along 140W and north of 27N. The low may 
linger into early next week before weakening and opening to a 
trough. The nearby NW swell of 8-10 ft will reach north of 10N 
and west of 130W by tonight, gradually decaying thereafter. 
Mixed swell of 6-8 ft will prevail elsewhere, with winds of 
mainly moderate or weaker, locally fresh near and just north of 
the ITCZ.

$$
Christensen