000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162143
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Mar 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 04N90W. The ITCZ 
continues from 04N90W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection 
from 02N to 07N between 86W and 92W, and S of 10N between 100W 
and 112W. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Latest altimeter satellite data indicated moderate seas peaking 
to 8 ft persist off across the offshore waters mainly N of 14N, 
primarily due to lingering NW swell. Slight seas are noted over 
the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate breezes persist across
the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters.

For the forecast, surface ridging over the eastern Pacific will 
maintain gentle to moderate breezes across the Mexican offshore 
waters into Sun. Expect moderate to fresh NW winds over the 
central and southern Gulf of California Sun and Sun night, and 
off Cabo Corrientes by late Mon as the high pressure builds west 
of the region and low pressure deepens over central Mexico. These
winds will diminish through late Tue. Farther south, fresh to 
strong gap will start by late Mon over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 
associated with a cold front moving into southern Mexico. These 
winds will diminish by late Tue.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure building north of the western Caribbean supports 
fresh NE winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region and coast of 
southwest Nicaragua. Seas in this area are 4-6 ft. This pattern 
also supports pulsing fresh NE winds in the Gulf of Panama and 
near the Azuero Peninsula, where seas are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, 
light to gentle variable winds and moderate seas prevail across 
the remainder of the region. Scattered thunderstorms are SW of 
western Panama.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue 
to support pulses of fresh northeast to east winds in the 
Papagayo region through Sun morning, then possibly returning by
mid-week. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will continue 
elsewhere through the forecast period. Meanwhile, southerly swell
will build seas slightly from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos 
Islands beginning on Sun, reaching near 8 ft SW of the Galapagos
Islands.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weakening frontal boundary extends from 30N137W to 26N140W. 
Waveheights of 8 to 10 ft accompany this front, primarily due to 
NW swell propagating into the region. Combined seas are 6 to 8 ft
elsewhere due to an earlier group of NW swell lingering over the
region mainly W of 105W. A component of southerly swell is 
mixing with the NW swell S of 03N between 105W and 115W. Shorter 
period wind waves from moderate trade wind flow is also mixing 
with the NW swell over the waters from 05N to 15N W of 110W. No 
major convection is evident at this time.

For the forecast, the front will continue to weaken and stall 
through the weekend. Low pressure may develop near 30N140W by 
late Sun along the stalled out boundary, with winds increasing to 
fresh along 140W and N of 27N. The low may linger into early next
week before weakening and opening to a trough. The nearby NW 
swell of 8-10 ft will reach N of 10N and W of 130W by tonight, 
gradually decaying thereafter. Mixed swell of 6-8 ft will 
prevail elsewhere, with winds of mainly moderate or weaker, 
locally fresh near and just N of the ITCZ.

$$
ERA