000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161541
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Mar 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 03N98W. The ITCZ 
continues from 03N98W to 04N140W. A second ITCZ extends from 
01S98W to 03S140W. Scattered moderate convection from 02N to 07N
between 82W and 92W, and S of 12N between 105W and 140W. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Latest altimeter satellite data indicated rough seas peaking to 
10 ft persisting off Baja California, primarily due to lingering 
NW swell. Moderate combined seas are noted elsewhere in open 
waters, with slight seas over the Gulf of California. Gentle to 
moderate breezes persist across all Mexican offshore waters.

For the forecast, a weak high pressure over the eastern Pacific 
will maintain gentle to moderate breezes across the Mexican 
offshore waters into Sun, as large NW swell off Baja California 
gradually subsides. Expect moderate to fresh NW winds over the 
central and southern Gulf of California Sun and Sun night, and 
off Cabo Corrientes by late Mon as the high pressure builds west 
of the region and low pressure deepens over central Mexico. 
These winds will diminish through late Tue. Farther south, fresh
to strong gap will start by late Mon over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, associated with a cold front moving into southern 
Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure building north of the western Caribbean supports 
fresh NE winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region and coast of 
southwest Nicaragua. Seas in this area are 5-7 ft. This pattern 
also supports pulsing fresh NE winds in the Gulf of Panama and 
near the Azuero Peninsula, where seas are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, 
light to gentle variable winds and moderate seas prevail across 
the remainder of the region. Scattered thunderstorms are SW of 
western Panama.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue 
to support pulses of fresh northeast to east winds in the 
Papagayo region through Sun morning, then possibly returning Wed.
Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will continue elsewhere 
through the forecast period. Meanwhile, southerly swell will 
build seas slightly from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos 
Islands this weekend, reaching near 8 ft SW of the Galapagos 
Islands. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weakening frontal boundary extends from 30N137W to 27N140W. 
Waveheights of 8 to 10 ft accompany this front, primarily due to
NW swell propagating into the region. Combined seas are 6 to 8 
ft elsewhere due to an earlier group of NW swell lingering over 
the region mainly W of 105W. A component of southerly swell is 
mixing with the NW swell south of 05N between 105W and 120W. 
Shorter period wind waves from moderate trade wind flow is also 
mixing with the NW swell over the waters from 05N to 15N W of 
125W. No major convection is evident at this time.

For the forecast, the front will continue to weaken and stall 
through the weekend. Low pressure may develop near 30N140W by 
late Sun along the stalled out boundary, with winds increasing to
at least fresh along 140W and N of 27N. The low may linger into 
early next week before weakening and opening to a trough. The 
nearby NW swell of 7-10 ft will reach N of 10N and W of 130W by 
late today, gradually decaying thereafter. Meanwhile, the swell 
offshore Baja California to 130W will subside to less than 8 ft 
by late Sun. Mixed swell of 6-8 ft will prevail elsewhere, with 
winds of mainly moderate or weaker, locally fresh near and just 
N of the ITCZ.

$$
ERA