000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151506 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Mar 15 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 02N100W. The ITCZ continues from 02N100W to 03N120W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 07N between 81W and 85W, from 08N to 10N between 101W and 113W, and from 02N to 08N between 111W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... An 1005 low pressure center is analyzed near the coast near the border of California and Mexico. A surface trough is analyzed across the northern Gulf of California extending from 1003 mb low pressure over western Arizona, with moderate to fresh SW-W winds S of the trough across the Gulf downwind of Baja California gaps. Similar winds are found offshore and W of Baja California from near Cabo San Lazaro northward. Mainly gentle winds prevail elsewhere. NW swell is supporting 7-11 ft seas offshore Baja California, highest W of Punta Eugenia. Seas of 4-7 ft in mainly NW swell prevail elsewhere, mixed with southerly swell near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. In the Gulf of California, seas are 1-3 ft. For the forecast, low pressure over the southwestern United States will lift northward through late today, as high pressure centered west of the region builds eastward. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds will prevail as a result from the Gulf of California SE to near Cabo Corrientes, and offshore of Baja California Sun into early next week, increasing to fresh to strong near Cabo Corrientes Mon night. Meanwhile, large swell off Baja California will subside through tonight. Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night through Tue night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR High pressure building north of the western Caribbean supports fresh to strong NE winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region and coast of southwest Nicaragua. Seas in this area are 5-8 ft. This pattern also supports pulsing fresh NE winds in the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula, where seas are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the region. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue to support pulses of fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the Papagayo region through Sun morning, then possibly returning Tue night. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will continue elsewhere through the forecast period. Meanwhile, southerly swell will build seas slightly from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands this weekend, reaching near 8 ft SW of the Galapagos Islands. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front is entering the NW corner near 30N140W. Moderate to fresh S-SW winds are ahead of the front, while associated W-NW swell of 7-10 ft has breached SE of 30N140W. Ridging extends across the open waters ahead of the front and N of the ITCZ, from 30N135W to 20N124W to 17N110W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are under the ridge, locally fresh near and just N of the ITCZ W of 120W. Another set of NW swell is offshore Baja California to near 130W where seas are 7-11 ft. Seas of 7-8 ft in mixed swell covers the waters S of 18N, and 6-7 ft N of 18N between the front and 130W. For the forecast, the cold front will weaken and stall as it pushes more SE of 30N140W. Low pressure may develop near 30N140W this weekend along the stalled out boundary, with winds increasing to at least fresh along 140W and N of 27N. The low may linger into early next week. The nearby NW swell of 7-10 ft will reach N of 10N and W of 130W by late Sat, gradually decaying thereafter. Meanwhile, the swell offshore Baja California to 130W will subside to less than 8 ft by the 2nd half of the weekend. Mixed swell of 6-8 ft will prevail elsewhere, with winds of mainly moderate or weaker, locally fresh near and just N of the ITCZ. $$ Lewitsky