000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150311
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Mar 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 05N95W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N95W to 06N130W to 03N140W. A second ITCZ
extends from 00N100W to 01S115W to 02S120W. No significant 
showers or thunderstorms are noted. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front is analyzed from southern Arizona, across the 
northern Gulf of California, to 1004 mb low pressure off Baja
California just south of Tijuana. Reports from Puerto Penasco in
the northern Gulf of California show NW winds to 20 kt behind the
front. Moderate to fresh NW winds are likely off Baja California
Norte with 10 to 13 ft combined seas primarily due to NW swell.
Altimeter satellite and ship reports indicate combined seas of 8
to 10 ft off Baja California Sur, almost as far south as the
Revillagigedo Islands. Light to gentle breezes are evident
elsewhere with 5 to 7 ft seas primarily in NW swell. 

For the forecast, the low pressure and front over Baja 
California Norte will lift northward through Fri, as high 
pressure centered west of the region builds eastward. The fresh 
winds over the northern Gulf of California will diminish 
overnight. Meanwhile, the large swell off Baja California will 
subside through late Fri. Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong 
winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure building north of the western Caribbean supports 
fresh to strong NE winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region and
coast of southwest Nicaragua. Seas in this area are 5 to 8 ft. 
This pattern also supports pulsing fresh NE winds in the Gulf of 
Panama, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle 
variable winds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of 
the region.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue 
to support pulses of fresh to strong northeast to east winds in 
the Papagayo region through Sat. Light to gentle winds and 
moderate seas will continue elsewhere through the forecast 
period. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to fresh NW winds along with 8 to 13 ft seas in NW 
swell are evident north of 20N and east of 130W. These winds are
associated with 1004 mb low pressure off Baja California near
Tijuana. Weak ridging is displaced well north of the area, and
this pattern is supporting only gentle to moderate trade winds 
over deep tropics. NW swell in excess of 8 ft covers most the
waters west of 105W, with a mix of NW and SE swell near the
equator. 

For the forecast, the low pressure will lift north Fri followed
by weak ridging building north of 25N through Sun. This change in
the pattern will allow moderate to fresh winds north of 20N and
east of 130W to diminish Fri. Combined seas will subside across
most of the basin into Sun, except north of 15N and west of 130W
where a new swell group with 8 to 10 ft waveheights will
accompany a weak cold front drifting into the region from the
northwest. The front will stall along 135W north of 25N by late
Fri and dissipate Sat. Looking ahead, trade winds will increase
between 120W and 130W from 05N to 15N starting Mon as the high
pressure becomes established farther north. Combined seas will
build to 7 to 9 ft in this area in part due to the increase trade
winds but also due to reinforcing NW swell.

$$
Christensen