000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141521
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Mar 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 06N1007W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N100W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 04N to 09N between 95W and 121W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A recent scatterometer pass noted moderate fresh NW winds 
funneling along the west coast of Baja California north of Cabo 
San Lazaro due to the pressure gradient between high pressure 
over the Pacific and a 1009 mb low pressure center just offshore
southern California. Seas are 8 to 13 ft in this area, while 8 to
9 ft seas prevail across the coastal waters N of 17N. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate mostly variable winds and moderate seas in 
mixed long period northwesterly swell are over the remainder of 
the area.

For the forecast, fresh winds along with the 10 to 13 ft combined
seas will prevail through Fri offshore western Baja California  
as high pressure lifts north and the area of weak low pressure 
sinks south. Strong high pressure over the Great Basin N of the 
area will support strong N winds funneling down the lower 
Colorado River Valley into the northern Gulf of California  
through this afternoon. Elsewhere, seas across the area will 
subside to less than 8 ft by Sat. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure building north of the western Caribbean supports 
fresh to strong NE winds are present within the Gulf of Papagayo 
region. Seas in this area are 5 to 7 ft. This pattern also 
supports pulsing fresh NE winds in the Gulf of Panama, where seas
are 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds and 
moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the region.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to support pulses
of fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the Papagayo 
region through Sat. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will
continue elsewhere through the forecast period. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient from a 1031 mb high pressure located near 
43N132W and relatively lower pressures in the deep tropics 
supports fresh NE to E winds from 04N to 20N W of 120W. Combined
seas are 8 to 10 ft. North of 20N, moderate winds and 8 to 10 ft
seas in NW swell prevail. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate 
seas are elsewhere.

Looking ahead, fresh trade winds will begin to diminish 
throughout today as high pressure continues to move well N of 
the area. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will subside Fri. Another set of 
long period northwest swell in association with a cold front will
enter waters N of 25N W of 135W beginning Fri morning and 
propagate southeast through the weekend.

$$
ERA