000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140948
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Mar 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0845 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from 07N78W to 07N90W to 06N1007W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N100W to 05N120W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 100W and 110W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A recent scatterometer pass noted fresh NW winds funneling along
the west coast of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro due 
to the pressure gradient between high pressure over the Pacific 
and lower pressures over western Mexico. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in 
the area of these winds. North of 29N, combined seas are 
building 10 to 13 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate mostly 
variable winds and moderate seas in mixed long period southerly 
and northwesterly swell are over the remainder of the area.

For the forecast, fresh winds along with the 10 to 13 ft combined
seas will diminish offshore western Baja California today through
Fri. Strong high pressure over the Great Basin north of the area
will support strong N winds funneling down the lower Colorado 
River Valley into the northern Gulf of California through Thu. 
Conditions will improve through the end of the week, and seas
across the area will subside to less than 8 ft by Sat. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure building north of the western Caribbean supports 
fresh to strong NE winds are present within the Gulf of Papagayo 
region. Seas in this area are 5 to 8 ft. This pattern also 
supports pulsing fresh NE winds in the Gulf of Panama, where 
seas are 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds and
moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the region.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to support pulses
of fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the Papagayo 
region through Sat night. Light to gentle winds and moderate 
seas will continue elsewhere through the forecast period. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient from a 1032 mb high pressure located near 
40N133W and relatively lower pressures in the deep tropics 
supports fresh NE to E winds from 05N to 20N west of 125W. 
Combined seas are 8 to 10 ft. North of 20N, moderate winds and 8 
to 10 ft seas in NW swell prevail. Gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas are elsewhere.

Looking ahead, fresh trade winds will begin to diminish 
throughout today as high pressure lifts well north of the area. 
Seas of 8 to 10 ft will subside Fri. Another set of long period 
northwest swell in association with a cold front will enter 
waters north of 25N west of 135W beginning Fri morning and 
propagate southeast through the weekend.

$$
Mora