000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132134
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Mar 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2121 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from 06N78W to 04N85W to 05N98.5W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N98.5W to 05N122W to 03N140W. Isolated moderate
convection is noted from 3.5N to 08N between 83W and 89W. Similar
convection is depicted in the ITCZ from 05N to 08N between 98.5W
and 104W. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh NW winds are funneling along the west coast of
Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro due to the pressure 
gradient between 1033 mb high pressure over the Pacific and 
lower pressures over western Mexico. Pulses of localized strong 
winds may be found north of Punta Eugenia. Seas are 7 to 10 ft 
in the area of these winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate mostly 
variable winds and moderate seas in mixed long- period southerly 
and northwesterly swell are over the remainder of the area.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse 
offshore western Baja California through Thu morning due to the 
pressure gradient between high pressure over the Pacific and low 
pressure northwest of Baja California Norte. This pattern will 
also support a brief pulse of fresh to strong winds over the 
northern Gulf of California Thu. Long period 8 to 10 northwest 
swell will continue SW to the Revillagigedo Islands. A second 
set of 12 to 13 ft long period NW swell will impact the offshore
waters north of 27N tonight into Thu night before it begins to 
subside. Conditions will improve through the end of the week, and
seas will subside to less than 8 ft by Sat. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE winds are present within the Gulf of Papagayo
region as depicted during the latest ASCAT pass. Seas in this 
area are 5 to 8 ft. High pressure building north of the western 
Caribbean supports these winds along with pulsing moderate NE 
winds in the Gulf of Panama, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere,
light to gentle variable winds and moderate seas prevail across 
the remainder of the region.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to support pulses
of fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the Papagayo 
region through Sat night. Light to gentle winds and moderate 
seas will continue elsewhere through the forecast period. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1033 mb high pressure located near 37N133W dominates these 
waters, and it is driving the weather pattern. Recent
scatterometer data depicted moderate to fresh NE to E winds from
03N to 22N mainly west of 127W. These winds are due to the 
pressure gradient between the aforementioned high pressure and 
relatively lower pressures in the deep tropics. Combined seas are
8 to 10 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are 
elsewhere. 

Looking ahead, fresh trade winds will continue through Thu
morning. Seas will remain 8 to 10 ft with these winds before 
beginning to subside tonight through Fri. Another set of 12 to 13
ft long period northwest swell will impact the waters north of 
28N and east of 125W tonight into Thu night before it begins to 
subside. Yet, another set of long-period northwest swell in
association with a cold front will enter the far northwest 
waters beginning Fri morning and propagate southeast through the 
weekend.

$$
KRV