000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131559
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Mar 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from 07N78W to 04N85W to 04N98W. The ITCZ 
continues from 04N98W to 04N117W to 03N140W. Isolated moderate 
convection is noted within 90 nm north of the trough between 82W
and 98W and also within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 98W and 123W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh NW winds are funneling along the west coast of
Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro due to the pressure 
gradient between high pressure over the Pacific and lower 
pressures over western Mexico. Pulses of strong winds may be 
north of Punta Eugenia. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in the area of these
winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate mostly variable winds and 
moderate seas in mixed long- period southerly and northwesterly 
swell are over the remainder of the area.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse 
offshore western Baja California through Thu morning due to the 
pressure gradient between high pressure over the Pacific and low 
pressure northwest of Baja California Norte. This pattern will 
also support a brief pulse of fresh to strong winds over the 
northern Gulf of California Thu. Long period northwest swell will
continue SW to the Revillagigedo Islands, building seas 8 to 10 
ft through the rest of the day. A second set of 12 to 14 ft long
period NW swell will impact the offshore waters north of 27N this
evening into Thu night before it begins to subside. For the
remainder of the forecast period long period NW swell will 
continue at around 10 ft. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE winds are present within the Gulf of Papagayo
region, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. High pressure building north 
of the western Caribbean supports these winds along with pulsing 
fresh NE winds in the Gulf of Panama, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. 
Elsewhere, seas to 8 ft in S swell are building southwest of the 
Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle variable winds and moderate 
seas prevail across the remainder of the region.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to support fresh 
to strong northeast to east gap winds in the Papagayo region 
through Fri morning, while the winds in the Gulf of Panama will 
diminish to moderate winds this evening. The S swell south of 
the Galapagos Islands will subside to below 8 ft by this 
evening. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will continue 
elsewhere through the forecast period. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure dominates these waters, and it is driving the
weather pattern. Fresh to localized strong NE to E winds from 
06N to 23N mainly west of 126W due to the pressure gradient 
between the 1030 mb high pressure near 37N136W and relatively 
lower pressures in the deep tropics. Combined seas are 8 to 11 
ft. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are elsewhere. 

Looking ahead, fresh to localized strong trade winds will 
continue through tonight. Seas will remain 8 to 11 ft with these
winds before beginning to subside tonight through Fri. Another 
set of 12 to 14 ft long period northwest swell will impact the 
waters north of 28N and east of 125W tonight into Thu night 
before it begins to subside. Yet, another set of long- period 
northwest swell will enter the far northwest waters beginning Fri
morning and propagate southeast through the weekend.

$$
KRV