318 
AXPZ20 KNHC 130342
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Mar 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from 07N77W to 06N90W to 04N110W. The ITCZ 
continues from 03N110W to 04N125W to 03N140W. Isolated moderate 
convection is noted within 90 nm north of the trough between 90W
and 100W and also within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 115W and 130W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh NW winds are funneling along the west coast of
Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro due to the pressure 
gradient between high pressure over the Pacific and lower 
pressures over western Mexico. Pulses of strong winds may be 
north of Punta Eugenia. Seas are 8 to 11 ft in the area of these 
winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate mostly variable winds and 
moderate seas in mixed long- period southerly and northwesterly 
swell are over the remainder of the area.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse 
offshore western Baja California through Thu morning due to the 
pressure gradient between high pressure over the Pacific and low 
pressure northwest of Baja California Norte. This pattern will 
also support a brief pulse of fresh to strong winds over the 
northern Gulf of California Thu. Long period northwest swell will
continue SW to the Revillagigedo Islands, building seas 8 to 10 
ft through Wed. A second set of 12 to 14 ft long period NW swell 
will impact the offshore waters north of 27N Wed night into Thu 
night before it begins to subside. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are present within the Gulf of 
Papagayo region, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. High pressure 
building north of the western Caribbean supports these winds 
along with pulsing fresh to strong NE winds in the Gulf of 
Panama, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle variable winds
and moderate seas are across the remainder of the region.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to support fresh 
to strong northeast to east gap winds in the Papagayo region 
through Fri morning, while the winds in the Gulf of Panama will 
diminish this evening. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas 
between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador will continue through 
the forecast period. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure dominates these waters, and it is driving the
weather pattern. The pressure gradient between the 1029 mb high 
pressure near 34N138W and relatively lower pressures in the deep
tropics supports fresh to strong easterly winds from 05N to 20N
mainly west of 120W, where combined seas are 8 to 11 ft.
Elsewhere from the equator to 25N west of 115W, moderate to fresh
trades and seas of 7 to 10 ft prevail. Light to gentle winds and
moderate seas are elsewhere. 

Looking ahead, fresh to localized strong trade winds will 
continue through Wed night. Seas will remain 8 to 11 ft with 
these winds before beginning to subside Wed night through Fri. 
Another set of 12 to 14 ft long period northwest swell will 
impact the waters north of 28N and east of 125W Wed night into 
Thu night before it begins to subside. Yet, another set of long- 
period northwest swell will enter the far northwest waters 
beginning Fri morning and propagate southeast through the 
weekend.

$$
Mora