000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122215 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2214 UTC Tue Mar 12 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 06N77W to 06N91W to 03N101W. The ITCZ extends from 03N101W to 04N120W to 02N140W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 86W and 100W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh NW winds are funneling along the west coast of Baja California north of 22N due to the pressure gradient between high pressure over the Pacific and lower pressures over western Mexico. Seas are 8 to 11 ft in the area of these winds, east of 118W. West of 118W incoming long period NW swell supports seas of around 12 ft. Elsewhere, fresh N winds and 5 to 7 ft seas continue within the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle mostly variable winds and moderate seas in mixed long- period southwest and northwest swell are over the remainder of the area. For the forecast, winds and seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue to subside through the evening. Fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore western Baja California through Thu morning due to the pressure gradient between high pressure over the Pacific and low pressure northwest of Baja Norte. This pattern will also support a brief pulse of fresh to strong winds over the northern Gulf of California Thu. Long period northwest swell will continue SW, building seas over the waters north of 17N and west of 110W to 8 to 10 ft and north of 26N to 10 to 12 ft through Wed. A second set of 12 to 14 ft long-period northwest swell will impact the offshore waters north of 28N Wed night into Thu night before it begins to subside. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong NE to E winds are present within the Gulf of Papagayo region, where seas are 5 to 9 ft. High pressure building north of the western Caribbean supports these winds along with pulsing fresh NE winds in the Gulf of Panama, where seas are 4 to 8 ft. Light to gentle variable winds and slight to moderate seas are across the remainder of the region. For the forecast, high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to support fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds in the Papagayo region through Fri morning, while the winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish this evening. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador will continue through the forecast period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure dominates these waters, and it is driving the weather pattern. The pressure gradient between the 1029 mb high pressure along 32N and relatively lower pressures in the deep tropics is allowing for generally moderate to fresh northeasterly winds from about the Equator to 27N and west of 120W. Seas over these waters are 8 to 11 ft due to the combination of wind generated waves and long-period mixed northeast and northwest swell. Localized strong winds are seen from 08N to 22N west of 136W. Seas of 7 to 10 ft are over the remainder of the area west of 110W. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are elsewhere. Looking ahead, fresh to localized strong trade winds will continue from 05N to 25N and west of 122W through Wed night. Seas will remain 8 to 11 ft with these winds before beginning to subside Wed night through Fri. Another set of long-period northwest swell will impact the waters north of 28N and east of 125W Wed night into Thu night before it begins to subside. Yet, another set of long- period northwest swell will enter the far northwest waters beginning Fri morning and propagate southeast through the weekend. $$ KRV