000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121601
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Mar 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from 05N77W to 04N90W to 03N99W. The ITCZ 
extends from 03N99W to 04N122W to 02N140W. Isolated moderate 
convection is noted from 02N to 07.5N between 81W and 90W. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh NW winds are funneling along the west coast of
Baja California north of 22N due to the pressure gradient 
between high pressure over the Pacific and lower pressures over 
western Mexico. Seas are 8 to 11 ft in the area of these winds, 
east of 118W. West of 118W incoming long period NW swell supports
seas of around 12 ft. Elsewhere, fresh to strong N winds and 5 
to 8 ft seas continue within the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to 
gentle mostly variable winds and moderate seas in mixed long- 
period southwest and northwest swell are over the remainder of 
the area.

For the forecast, winds and seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will
subside through the afternoon. Fresh to strong winds will pulse 
offshore western Baja California through Thu due to the pressure 
gradient between high pressure over the Pacific and low pressure 
northwest of Baja Norte. This pattern will also support a brief 
pulse of fresh to strong winds over the northern Gulf of 
California Wed and Thu. Long period northwest swell will 
continue SW, building seas over the waters north of 17N and west 
of 110W to 8 to 10 ft and north of 26N to 10 to 13 ft through 
Wed. A second set of long-period northwest swell will impact the
offshore waters north of 27N Wed night into Thu night before it 
begins to subside. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are present within the Gulf of 
Papagayo region, where seas are 6 to 9 ft. High pressure 
building north of the western Caribbean supports these winds 
along with pulsing fresh to strong NE winds in the Gulf of 
Panama, where seas are 4 to 7 ft. Light to gentle variable winds
and slight to moderate seas are across the remainder of the 
region. 

For the forecast, high pressure building north of the western 
Caribbean will continue to support fresh to strong northeast to 
east gap winds in the Papagayo region through Fri morning, while
the winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish this afternoon. 
Light to gentle winds and moderate seas between the Galapagos 
Islands and Ecuador will continue through the forecast period. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure dominates these waters, and it is driving the wind
regime here. The pressure gradient between the 1029 mb high 
pressure along 32N and relatively lower pressures in the deep 
tropics is allowing for generally moderate to fresh northeasterly
winds from about 05N to 25N and west of 120W. Seas over these 
waters are 8 to 11 ft due to the combination of wind generated 
waves and long-period mixed northeast and northwest swell. Seas 
10 to 13 ft are occurring north of 27N between 120W and 122W due
to long period swell propagating through the area. Seas of 7 to 
10 ft are over the remainder of the area west of 110W. Light to 
gentle winds and moderate seas are elsewhere. 

Looking ahead, fresh to strong trade winds will continue from 05N
to 25N and west of 120W through Thu morning. Seas will remain 8 
to 11 ft with these winds before beginning to subside Thu 
through Fri. Another set of long-period northwest swell will 
impact the waters north of 27N and east of 125W Wed night into 
Thu night before it begins to subside. Yet, another set of long-
period northwest swell will enter the far northwest waters 
beginning Fri night and propagate southeast through the weekend.


$$
KRV