801 AXPZ20 KNHC 121006 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Mar 12 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 06N77W to 04N90W to 00N102W. The ITCZ extends from 00N102W to 03N120W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted offshore Colombia from 04N to 07N east of 80W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A recent scatterometer satellite pass noted fresh NW winds funneling along the west coast of Baja California north of 25N due to the pressure gradient between high pressure over the Pacific and lower pressures over western Mexico. Recent altimeter data suggests seas are 7 to 9 ft in the area of these winds, east of 118W. West of 118W and the Island of Guadalupe, incoming long period NW swell supports seas of 10 to 14 ft. Elsewhere, strong N winds and 7 to 9 ft seas continue within the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle mostly variable winds and moderate seas in mixed long-period southwest and northwest swell are over the remainder of the area. For the forecast, winds and seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will subside through the morning. Fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore western Baja California through Thu due to the pressure gradient between high pressure over the Pacific and low pressure northwest of Baja Norte. This pattern will also support a brief pulse of fresh to strong winds over the northern Gulf of California on Thu. Long period northwest swell will continue SW, building seas over the waters north of 17N and west of 110W to 8 to 10 ft and north of 26N to 10 to 13 ft through Wed. A second set of long-period northwest swell will impact the offshore waters north of 27N Wed night into Thu night before it begins to subside. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR A scatterometer pass from early this morning noted mainly fresh E winds within the Gulf of Papagayo region, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. High pressure building north of the western Caribbean supports these winds along with pulsing fresh to strong N winds in the Gulf of Panama, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds and slight to moderate seas are across the remainder of the region. For the forecast, high pressure building north of the western Caribbean will continue to support fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds in the Papagayo region, and moderate to fresh north to northeast pulsing winds in the Gulf of Panama. The winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will continue to pulse through Sat morning, while the winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish this afternoon and pulse to strong again overnight. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador will continue through the forecast period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure dominates these waters, and it is driving the wind regime here. The pressure gradient between the high pressure along 30N and relatively lower pressures in the deep tropics is allowing for generally moderate to fresh northeasterly winds from about 05N to 25N and west of 120W. Seas over these waters are 8 to 11 ft due to the combination of wind generated waves and long- period mixed northeast and northwest swell. A recent altimeter pass revealed 10 to 14 ft seas north of 22N likely occurring between 120W and 135W due to long period swell propagating through the area. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are over the remainder of the area west of 110W. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are elsewhere. Looking ahead, fresh to strong trade winds will continue from 05N to 25N and west of 120W through Thur afternoon. Seas will remain 8 to 12 ft with these winds before beginning to subside Thu through Fri. Another set of long-period northwest swell will impact the waters north of 27N and east of 125W Wed night into Thu night before it begins to subside. Yet another set of long- period northwest swell will enter the far northwest waters beginning Fri and propagate southeast through the weekend. $$ Mora