000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Mar 11 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient in southeastern Mexico due to high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico ridging southward is supporting gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The gale-fore winds will diminish to just below gale-force by early this evening. Seas peaking to 12 ft with these winds will subside into tonight. Residual northeast swell from this event will produce seas of 8 ft well downstream of the Gulf by early this evening from 10N to 15N between 95W-99W. These seas then subside late tonight. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from northwestern Colombia, southwestward to 07N78W and to 04N87W to 04N100W. The ITCZ extends from 04N100W to 02N118W to 02N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north and south along trough. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event that ends this evening. The pressure gradient between high pressure ridging that extends eastward from the open Pacific waters to Baja California, and relatively lower pressures in western Mexico is allowing for gentle to moderate northwest to north winds over the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas over these waters are 6-8 ft north of Punta Eugenia, 4-6 ft from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro and 5-7 ft from Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas. Light to gentle mostly variable winds and moderate seas in mixed long-period southwest and northwest swell are elsewhere. For the forecast, the moderate northwest winds over the offshore waters of Baja California will freshen through Wed night, then diminish to weaker speeds. A large set of long-period northwest swell will arrive today over the waters west of Punta Eugenia, with seas forecast to build to 12 ft on late tonight into Tue. A second set of long-period northwest swell will impact the offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia Wed night into Thu before it begins to subside. Otherwise, gale-force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehunatepec will diminish by early this evening. Seas peaking to 12 ft with these winds will subside tonight. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR A rather weak pressure pattern remains over these waters providing for light to gentle variable winds and slight to moderate seas across the region, except for moderate to fresh northeast winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. For the forecast, the light to gentle winds will continue across most of the region through the forecast period. High pressure will build north of the western Caribbean today allowing for fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds in the Papagayo region, and moderate to fresh north to northeast winds in the Gulf of Panama. The winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will continue to pulse through Sat morning, while the winds in the Gulf of Panama begin to pulse at fresh to strong speeds tonight before diminishing on Wed afternoon. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador will continue through the forecast period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure dominates these waters, and it is driving the wind regime here. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressures in the deep tropics is allowing for generally moderate to fresh northeasterly winds from about 05N to 20N and west of 110W. Seas over these waters are 8-10 ft due to the combination of wind generated waves and long- period mixed northeast and northwest swell. Gentle or weaker winds along with moderate seas are present elsewhere. Large long- period northwest swell is propagating through the western half of the area, reaching northeastward to the waters just west of extreme northern Baja California and southern California. The swell is supporting seas of 8-11 ft. Looking ahead, the large long-period northwest swell will continue to migrate toward Baja California through Tue. Another large set of long-period northwest swell that is situated just to the north of the northwest forecast waters will propagate through the north-central waters today then through the northeast forecast waters afterward into Tue. Yet another set of long-period northwest swell will propagate through the waters west of extreme northern Baja California and southern California starting late on Wed. Wave guidance indicates that seas may possibly peak to around 13 ft with this next set of swell. The peak seas with this swell are expected to lower to below 12 ft by late Thu. $$ KRV