000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110317 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Mar 11 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient in SE Mexico due to high pressure building southward over the western Gulf of Mexico post-frontal passage is supporting minimal gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gales force winds will continue through Mon morning, reaching 40 kt tonight. Peak seas are are forecast to build to 14 ft tonight. However, the leading edge of the 8 ft seas is forecast to reach to near 11N97W by Mon morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from low pressure over northwestern Colombia, southwestward to 07N78W and to 04N82W to 04N90W and to 04N91W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 05N107W to 04N115W to 03N125W to 05N132W and to 04N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm north of the trough between 81W-84W and within 60 nm north of the trough between 84W-91W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 30 nm south of the trough between 93W-96W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event. The pressure gradient between high pressure ridging that extends eastward from the open Pacific waters to Baja California, and relatively lower pressures in western Mexico is allowing for gentle to moderate northwest winds over the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas over these waters are in the 5-6 ft range. Gentle to moderate northwest winds are along the Gulf of California along with 2-4 ft seas, highest near the entrance of the gulf. Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, light to gentle variable winds and moderate seas in mixed long- period southwest and northwest swell are ongoing elsewhere. For the forecast, gentle to moderate northwest winds over the offshore waters of Baja California will freshen up tonight through Wed night, then diminish to weaker speeds. A large set of long-period northwest swell will arrive Mon over the waters west of Punta Eugenia, with seas forecast to build to 12 ft on Mon night into Tue. A second set of long-period northwest swell will impact the offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia Wed night into Thu before it begins to subside. Otherwise, gale-force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehunatepec will continue through Mon morning, generating seas to possibly 14 ft tonight in the region. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR A rather weak pressure pattern remains over these waters providing for light to gentle variable winds and slight to moderate seas across the region, except for moderate northeast to east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. For the forecast, the light to gentle winds will continue across most of the region through the forecast period. High pressure will build north of the western Caribbean tonight allowing for fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds in the Papagayo region, and moderate to fresh north to northeast in the Gulf of Panama. The winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will continue through Thu night, while the winds in the Gulf of Panama diminish early Wed evening. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador will continue through the forecast period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure dominates these waters, and is driving the wind regime here. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressures in the deep tropics is allowing for generally fresh trade winds from about 05N to 20N and west of 124W. Seas over these waters are 8-10 ft due to the combination of wind generated waves and long-period mixed northeast and northwest swell. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas are present elsewhere. Large long-period northwest swell is propagating through the northwest and north-central waters supporting 8-11 ft seas. The southern extend of this swell earlier merged with the aforementioned swell that is in the western tropical waters. Looking ahead, large long-period northwest swell will continue to propagate through the northwest and north-central waters through tonight, with its eastern extent reaching the waters west of Baja California Mon. Another large set of long-period northwest swell that is situated just to the north of the northwest forecast waters will propagate through the north- central waters through early Mon, then through the northeast forecast waters afterward into Tue while subsiding. Yet another set of long-period northwest swell, it appears, will intrude into the waters west of extreme northern Baja California and southern California starting late on Wed. Wave guidance indicates that seas may possibly peak to around 13 ft with this next set of swell. $$ Aguirre