000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102204
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Mar 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient in 
SE Mexico due to high pressure building southward over the 
western Gulf of Mexico post-frontal passage is supporting minimal
gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gales will continue 
through Mon morning, reaching 40 kt tonight. Peak seas are
currently 12 ft, but are forecast to build to 14 ft tonight.
However, the leading edge of the 8 ft seas is forecast to reach 
to near 11N97W by Mon morning. Please read the latest High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean
southwestward to 07N78W to 03N90W to 04N99W where it transitions
to the ITCZ and continues to 03N120W to 04N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 00N to 07N between 81W and 91W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on 
an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event.

The pressure gradient between high pressure across Baja
California and adjacent waters, and relatively lower pressures 
in western Mexico is allowing for gentle to moderate NW winds 
over the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas over these 
waters are in the 5-6 ft range.

Gentle to moderate NW winds are along the Gulf of California 
along with 2-4 ft seas, highest near the entrance of the gulf. 
Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, light to 
gentle variable winds and moderate seas in mixed SW and NW 
swell are ongoing elsewhere.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate NW winds over the offshore 
waters of Baja California will freshen up tonight through Wed 
night, then diminish to weaker speeds. A large set of long-period
NW swell will arrive Mon over the waters west of Punta Eugenia, 
with seas forecast to build to 12 ft on Mon night into Tue. A 
second set of long-period NW swell will affect the offshore 
waters north of Punta Eugenia Wed night into Thu before it begins
to subside. Otherwise, gale-force gap winds in the Gulf of 
Tehunatepec will prevail through Mon morning, generating seas to
possibly 14 ft tonight in the region. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

A rather weak pressure pattern remains over these waters
providing for light to gentle variabel winds and slight to 
moderate seas across the region, except for locally moderate NE 
winds in the region of Papagayo.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will continue across 
most of the region through the forecast period. High pressure 
will build north of the western Caribbean tonight allowing for 
fresh to strong NE to E gap winds in the Papagayo region, and 
moderate to fresh N to NE winds in the Gulf of Panama. The winds
in the Gulf of Papagayo will continue through Thu night, while 
the winds in the Gulf of Panama diminish early Wed evening. Light
to gentle winds and moderate seas between the Galapagos Islands 
and Ecuador will continue through the forecast period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure dominates over the area, thus controlling the wind
regime. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and 
relatively lower pressures in the deep tropics is allowing for 
generally fresh trade winds from about 05N to 20N and west of 
124W. Seas over these waters are 8-10 ft due to the combination 
of wind generated waves and long-period NE swell. Moderate or 
weaker winds along with moderate seas are present elsewhere. 
Otherwise, large NW swell is propagating through the northwest 
and north-central waters supporting 8-11 ft seas. This area of
swell has merged with the aforementioned area in the western 
tropical waters.

Looking ahead, large NW swell will continue to propagate through
the NW and north-central waters, reaching the NE forecast waters this
evening. Another large set of NW swell will be located just 
north of the NW forecast waters tonight. It will propagate 
through the north-central waters through early Mon, then through 
the NE waters afterward into Tue while subsiding. Yet another set
of NW swell, it appears, will intrude into the waters W of 
extreme northern Baja California and southern California starting
late on Wed. Wave guidance indicates that seas may possibly peak
to around 13 ft with this next set of swell.

$$
Ramos