000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101602 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Mar 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: The pressure gradient will tighten in southeastern Mexico today as high pressure builds southward over the western Gulf of Mexico post-frontal passage. Minimal gale-force winds are forecast for the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning this morning and continuing through Mon morning. Peak seas with upcoming event are forecast to be in the range of about 9-14 ft, with the leading edge of the 8 ft seas reaching to near 11N97W by Mon morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean southwestward to 07N78W to 04N90W to 04N100W where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 03N120W to 05N136W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 05N between 84W and 92W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on a soon to begin Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event. The pressure gradient between high pressure across Baja California and adjacent waters and relatively lower pressures in the southwestern United States and in western Mexico is allowing for gentle to moderate northwest to north winds over the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas over these waters are in the 5-6 ft range. Moderate to fresh northwest to north winds are along the Gulf of California along with 3-4 ft seas. Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle winds and moderate seas in mixed southwest and northwest swell are ongoing elsewhere. For the forecast, the gentle to moderate northwest to north winds over the offshore waters of Baja California will freshen up tonight through Wed night, then diminish to weaker speeds. A large set of long-period northwest swell will arrive Mon over the waters west of Punta Eugenia, with seas forecast to build to 12 ft on Mon night into Tue. A second set of long-period northwest swell will affect the offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia Wed night into Thu before it begins to subside. Gale- force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehunatepec will prevail through Mon morning. These winds are expected to generate seas to possibly 14 ft downstream from the Tehuantepec region. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR A rather weak pressure pattern remains over these waters providing for light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas across the region, except for locally moderate NE winds in the region of Papagayo. For the forecast, the light to gentle winds will continue across most of the region through the forecast period. High pressure will build north of the western Caribbean beginning tonight allowing for fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds in the Papagayo region, and moderate to fresh north to northeast winds in the Gulf of Panama. The winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will continue through Thu night, while the winds in the Gulf of Panama diminish early Wed evening. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador will continue through the forecast period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure over the area is the dominate weather synoptic feature controlling the wind regime. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressures in the deep tropics is allowing for generally fresh trade winds from about 05N to 20N and west of 130W. Seas over these waters are 8-10 ft due to the combination of wind generated waves and long- period northeast swell. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas are present elsewhere. Otherwise, large NW swell is propagating through the northwest and north-central waters during this morning supporting 8-10 ft seas. Looking ahead, large NW swell will continue to propagate through the NW and north-central waters today, reaching the NE forecast waters by this evening. Another large set of NW swell will be located just north of the NW forecast waters tonight. It will propagate through the north-central waters through early Mon, then through the NE waters afterward into Tue while subsiding. Yet another set of NW swell, it appears, will intrude into the waters W of extreme northern Baja California and southern California starting late on Wed. Wave guidance indicates that seas may possibly peak to around 13 ft with this next set of swell. $$ Ramos