000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100950 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Mar 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: The pressure gradient will tighten in southeastern Mexico beginning today as high pressure builds southward over the western Gulf of Mexico post- frontal passage. Minimal gale-force winds are forecast for the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning this morning and continuing through Mon morning. Peak seas with upcoming event are forecast to be in the range of about 9-14 ft, with the leading edge of the 8 ft seas reaching to near 11N97W by Mon morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean southwestward to 07N78W to 05N86W and to 04N100W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 03N120W to 06N135W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 129W-130W, within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 133W- 136W and within 30 nm north of the trough between 84W-86W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on a soon to begin Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event. The pressure gradient between high pressure over these waters and relatively lower pressures in the southwestern United States and in western Mexico is allowing for gentle to moderate northwest to north winds over the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas over these waters are in the 5-7 ft range north of Punta Eugenia, and in the 4-6 ft range south of Punta Eugenia due to weaker northwest swell compared to that of the past few days. Moderate to fresh northwest to north winds are along and within about 90 nm offshore Cabo Corrientes along with seas 4-6 ft due to long-period northwest swell. Elsewhere over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle winds are ongoing along with slight to moderate seas in mixed long-period southwest and northwest swell. For the forecast, the gentle to moderate northwest to north winds over the offshore waters of Baja California will freshen up tonight through Wed night, then diminish to weaker speeds. A large set of long-period northwest swell will arrive Mon over the waters west of Punta Eugenia, with seas forecast to build to 12 ft on Mon night into Tue. A second set of long-period northwest swell will affect the offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia Wed night into Thu before it begins to subside. High pressure building southward over the western Gulf of Mexico is tightening the pressure gradient in southeastern Mexico. This will lead to gale-force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehunatepec from this morning through Mon morning. These winds are expected to generate seas to possibly 14 ft downstream from the Tehuantepec region. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR A rather weak pressure pattern remains over these waters providing for light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas across the region. For the forecast, the light to gentle winds will continue across most of the region through the forecast period. High pressure will build north of the western Caribbean beginning tonight allowing for fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds in the Papagayo region, and moderate to fresh winds north to northeast winds in the Gulf of Panama. The winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will continue through Thu night, while the winds in the Gulf of Panama diminish early Wed evening. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador will continue through the forecast period. High pressure will build towards the western Caribbean by Sun night leading to fresh to strong gap winds in the Papagayo region, and moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf of Panama. These winds will continue through Wed night, except through Thu night in the Papagayo region. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador will continue through the next few days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure over the area is the dominate weather synoptic feature controlling the wind regime. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressures in the deep tropics is allowing for generally fresh trade winds from about 05N to 20N and west of 126W as indicated by an ASCAT satellite data pass over that part of the area. Seas over these waters are 8-10 ft due to the combination of wind generated waves and long-period northeast swell. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas are present elsewhere. Looking ahead, a large set of northwest swell that recently entered the northwest part of the area will continue to propagate through the northwest and north-central waters during this morning, reaching the northeast forecast waters by this evening. This swell is producing seas of 8-12 ft, with the highest of the seas confined to the northwest part of the area as displayed by overnight altimeter satellite data passes. The southern extent of the swell will merge this morning with long-period northeast swell that is over the far western part of the area. The Wave models suggest that another large set of northwest swell will be located just north of the northwest forecast waters tonight. It will propagate through the north- central waters through early Mon, then through the northeast waters afterward into Tue while subsiding. Yet another set of northwest swell, it appears, will intrude into the waters west of extreme northern Baja California and southern California starting late on Wed. Wave guidance indicates that seas may possibly peak to around 13 ft with this next set of swell. $$ Aguirre