000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100310 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Mar 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: The pressure gradient will tighten in southeastern Mexico starting on Sun as high pressure builds southward over the western Gulf of Mexico post-frontal passage. Minimal gale-force winds are forecast for the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning Sun morning and continuing through Mon morning. Peak seas with upcoming event are forecast to be in the range of about 8-12 ft, with the leading edge of the 8 ft seas reaching to near 11N97W by Mon morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean southwestward to 07N78W to 04N90W and to 04N100W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to to 03N120W to 05N130W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 137W-140W and within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between 128W-131W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm south of the ITCZ between 128W-131W, and between 135W-140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event. The pressure gradient between high pressure over these waters and relatively lower pressures in the southwestern United States and in western Mexico is allowing mostly moderate northwest winds over the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas over these waters are in the 4-6 ft range north of Punta Eugenia and in the 5-7 ft range south of Punta Eugenia due to weaker northwest swell as compared to the past few days. Along and over the entrance of the Gulf of California to the offshore waters of Jalisco, winds are moderate to fresh, northwest in direction, with seas of 5-7 ft due to long-period northwest swell. Elsewhere over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle winds are ongoing along with slight to moderate seas in mixed southwest and northwest swell. For the forecast, gentle to moderate northwest winds over the offshore waters of Baja California will freshen up Sun night through Wed night. A large set of long-period northwest swell will arrive on Sun, with seas forecast to build to 12 ft on Mon night into Tue. A second set of long-period northwest swell will affect the offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia Wed night into Thu evening. Looking ahead, high pressure building southward over the western Gulf of Mexico in the wake of a cold front will tighten the gradient in southeastern Mexico leading to gale-force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehunatepec Sun morning through Mon morning. These winds are expected to generate rough seas to 12 ft downstream from the Tehuantepec region. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR A rather weak pressure pattern remains over these waters providing for light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas across the region. For the forecast, the light to gentle winds will continue across the region through Sun. High pressure will build towards the western Caribbean by Sun night leading to fresh to strong gap winds in the Papagayo region and moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf of Panama. These winds will continue through Wed night, except through Thu night in the Papagayo region. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador will continue through the next few days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure over the area is the dominate weather synoptic feature controlling the wind regime. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressures in the deep tropics is allowing for generally fresh trade winds from about 05N to 19N and west of 126W. Seas over these waters are 8-10 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are evident. Looking ahead, a large set of northwest swell will continue to propagate through the northwest and north-central waters into Sun. Seas with this set of swell will be 8-12 ft through late tonight, with the highest of the seas to be confined over the northwest part of the area. It appears that the southern extent of this swell set will merge with the swell that is over the western part of the area from late tonight into Sun. Yet another large set of northwest swell is depicted by the Wave models to begin to approach the far northwest corner late Sun night with seas peaking near 13 ft. $$ Aguirre