000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091605
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Mar 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: The pressure gradient will 
tighten in southeastern Mexico starting on Sun as high pressure 
builds southward over the western Gulf of Mexico post-frontal 
passage. Minimal gale-force winds are forecast for the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec beginning Sun morning and continuing through late Sun
night/Mon morning. This is forecast to be a short-lived event. 
Peak seas with upcoming event are forecast to be in the range of 
about 8-12 ft, with the leading edge of the 8 ft seas reaching to
near 13N95W by late Sun night. Please read the latest High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from low pressure over Colombia southwestward 
to 07N78W to 04N90W and to 03N101W, where it transitions to the 
ITCZ and continues to 05N130W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 01N to 06N W of 133W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on 
an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event.

The pressure gradient between high pressure of 1025 mb near 
28N133W and relatively lower pressures in the southwestern 
United States and in northwest Mexico is allowing for generally 
gentle to moderate northwest winds over the offshore waters of 
Baja California. Seas over these waters are in the 5-8 ft range  
due to northwest decaying swell over the offshore waters of Baja
California.

In the southern half and entrance of the Gulf of California,
winds are moderate to fresh from the northwest with 3-5 ft seas,
except 4-6 ft over the entrance of the Gulf. Elsewhere over the 
remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, light to gentle winds are ongoing along with slight
to moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell.

For the forecast, the gentle to moderate northwest winds over 
the offshore waters of Baja California will freshen up early 
next week. Seas will subside over the next couple of days, but a 
large set of northwest swell will arrive on Sun, with seas 
forecast to build to 13 ft on Wed. Looking ahead, high pressure 
building southward over the western Gulf of Mexico in the wake of
a cold front will tighten the gradient in southeastern Mexico 
leading to gale-force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehunatepec Sun 
through late Sun night/Mon morning. These winds are expected to 
generate rough seas downstream from the Tehuantepec region.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Broad lower pressures over the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean 
are keeping a weak pressure gradient across the Central America
and the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos
Islands. This is resulting in light to gentle winds and slight 
to moderate seas across the region.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail across the
region through Sun. By Sun evening, high pressure building 
towards the western Caribbean will lead to fresh to strong gap 
winds in the Papagayo region and moderate to fresh winds in the
Gulf of Panama continuing through Wed night. Light to gentle  
winds and moderate seas between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador 
will prevail through the forecast period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1025 mb is analyzed near 28N133W. The pressure 
gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressures
in the deep tropics is allowing for generally fresh trade winds 
from about 06N to 18N and west of 120W. Seas over these waters 
are 8-10 ft. The highest of these seas is located from 05N to 11N
west of 130W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate 
seas are evident.

Looking ahead, a large set of northwest swell is forecast to 
begin to intrude into the far northwest corner of the area 
starting this morning, and continue to propagate through the 
northwest and north-central waters into Sun. Seas with this set 
of swell will be 8-12 ft through late tonight, with the highest 
of the seas to be confined over the northwest part of the area. 
It appears that the southern extent of this swell set will merge 
with the swell that is over the western part of the area from 
late tonight into Sun. Yet another large set of northwest swell 
is depicted by the Wave models to begin to approach the far 
northwest corner late Sun night with seas peaking near 13 ft.

$$
Ramos