000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090943 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Mar 09 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: The pressure gradient will tighten in southeastern Mexico starting on Sun as high pressure builds southward over the western Gulf of Mexico post-frontal passage. Minimal gale-force winds are forecast for the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning Sun morning and continuing through late Sun night. This is forecast to be a short-lived event. Peak seas with upcoming event are forecast to be in the range of about 8-12 ft, with the leading edge of the 8 ft seas reaching to near 13N95W by late Sun night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from low pressure over Colombia southwestward to 07N78W to 05N82W and to 05N90W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 04N100W to 03N108W to 03N116W to 06N124W to 04N135W and to beyond 03N140W. No significant convection is noted. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event. The Fuego Volcano located in southern Guatemala near 14.5N 90.9W is currently emitting ash as observed on various GOES-E satellite images. Short bursts of the ash appear to be reaching near the coast roughly between El Paredon, Guatemala and Costa Azul, Mexico. The ash appears to be moving westward. For more information, please see the website: wwww.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/messages.html The pressure gradient between high pressure of 1025 mb near 30N131W and relatively lower pressures in the southwestern United States and in northwest Mexico is allowing for generally gentle to moderate northwest winds over the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas over these waters have subsided to 6-8 ft due to long-period northwest over the offshore waters of Baja California. A partial overnight ASCAT satellite data pass indicates fresh northwest winds over the central and southern sections of the Gulf of California and moderate northwest winds over the northern Gulf. Seas over the northern and central sections of the Gulf are 3-5 ft and 4-6 ft over the southern section. Elsewhere over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Light hazy conditions are noted near and along the coast of southeastern Mexico. For the forecast, the gentle to moderate northwest over the offshore waters of Baja California will freshen up again early next week. Seas will subside over the next couple of days, but large set of northwest swell will arrive on Sun, with seas forecast to build to 13 ft on Wed. Looking ahead, high pressure building southward over the western Gulf of Mexico in the wake of a cold front will tighten the gradient in southeastern Mexico leading to gale-force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehunatepec Sun through late Sun night. These winds are expected to generate rough seas downstream from the Tehuantepec region. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR The Fuego Volcano located in southern Guatemala near 14.5N 90.9W is currently emitting ash as observed on various GOES-E satellite images. Short bursts of the ash appear to be reaching near the coast roughly between El Paredon, Guatemala and Costa Azul, Mexico. The ash appears to be moving westward. For more information, please see the website: wwww.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/messages.html Broad lower pressures over the Gulf of Mexico is keeping a weak pressure gradient across the Gulf of Papagayo region, with light to gentle west to northwest winds. Seas over these waters are 3-5 ft due to long-period south to southwest swell. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft due to long- period south to southwest swell are over the Gulf of Panama, extending south to near 04N. Gentle to moderate southeast winds along with seas of 6-8 ft are present to southwest of the Galapagos Islands. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas remain. Light hazy conditions are noted near and along the coast of Central America north of northern Nicaragua. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will continue across the region through the weekend, with late night or early morning pulses of locally fresh winds in the Papagayo and Panama region. High pressure building toward the western Caribbean may lead to strong gap winds in the Papagayo region early next week. The moderate winds and seas southwest of the Galapagos Islands will diminish tonight. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1025 mb is analyzed near 30N131W. It remains the most prominent feature across the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific waters. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressures in the deep tropics is allowing for generally fresh to strong trade winds from about 06N to 18N and west of 120W. The latest scatterometer satellite data passes show that the winds of strong speeds are mainly present from 06N to 16N and west of 134W. Seas over these waters are 8-10 ft. The highest of these seas is located from 05N to 11N west of 130W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are evident. For the forecast, the aforementioned fresh to strong trade winds over the western part of the area will diminish by Sun. Seas over this part of the area will change little through the weekend. Looking ahead, a large set of northwest swell is forecast to begin to intrude into the far northwest corner of the area starting this morning, and continue to propagate through the northwest and north-central waters into Sun. Seas with this set of swell will be 8-12 ft through late tonight, with the highest of the seas to be confined over the northwest part of the area. It appears that the southern extent of this swell set will merge with the swell that is over the western part of the area from late tonight into Sun. Yet another large set of northwest swell is depicted by the Wave models to begin to approach the far northwest corner late Sun night with seas peaking near 13 ft. $$ Aguirre