000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082135 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Mar 8 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2135 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... An equatorial trough extends from 07N77W to 05N89W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N89W to 03N115W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 03N to 07N and between 81W and 95W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a 1027 mb high pressure system near 31N129W and lower pressures in the SW United States and NW Mexico sustain moderate to fresh NW winds in the offshore waters of Baja California. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas are 9-11 ft north of Punta Eugenia and 7-9 ft in the rest of the offshore waters of Baja California. The satellite-derived wind data also showed gentle to moderate NW winds in the Gulf of California. Seas in these waters are 2-5 ft. Elsewhere in the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the moderate to fresh northwest winds in the offshore waters of Baja California will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds tonight. Winds will then freshen up again early next week. Seas will subside over the next couple of days, but another swell region will arrive on Sun and seas will build to 12 ft by Tue. Looking ahead, high pressure building southward over the western Gulf of Mexico in the wake of a cold front will tighten the gradient in SE Mexico leading to gale-force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehunatepec Sun through late Sun night. These winds are expected to generate rough seas downstream from the Tehuantepec region. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Broad lower pressures over the Gulf of Mexico maintains a weak pressure gradient across the Gulf of Papagayo region, sustaining moderate to occasionally fresh easterly winds. Seas in these waters are 3-4 ft. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are evident in the Gulf of Panama, extending south to 04N. Moderate SE winds and seas of 6-8 ft are found SW of the Galapagos Islands. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will continue across the region through the weekend, with late night or early morning pulses of locally fresh winds in the Papagayo and Panama region. High pressure building toward the western Caribbean may lead to strong gap winds in the Papagayo region early next week. The moderate winds and seas SW of the Galapagos Islands will diminish tonight. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1027 mb high pressure system near 31N129W remains the most prominent feature across the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific waters. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds south of 18N and west of 120W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that the strongest winds are occurring from 06N to 13N and west of 135W. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 08N140W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are evident. For the forecast, the aforementioned fresh to strong trade winds over the western part of the area will diminish by Sun. Seas over this part of the area will change little through the weekend. Looking ahead, a large set of northwest swell is forecast to begin to intrude into the far northwest corner of the area starting early Sat and continue to advance through the northwest and north-central waters into Sun. Seas with this set of swell will be 8-12 ft through late Sat, with the highest of the seas to be confined over the northwest part of the area. It appears that the southern extent of this swell set will merge with the swell that is over the western part of the area late Sat night into Sun. Yet another large set of northwest swell is depicted by the Wave models to begin to approach the far northwest corner late Sun night with seas peaking near 13 ft. $$ Delgado