000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081550
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Mar 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1535 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

An equatorial trough extends from 07N78W to 05N88W. The ITCZ 
stretches from 05N88W to 03N115W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is observed from 04N to 07N and between 82W 
and 95W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1026 mb high pressure system located well west of southern 
California extends southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. 
The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures over
the SW United States and Mexico support moderate to fresh 
northerly winds across the offshore waters of Baja California. NW
swell is producing seas of 9-12 ft north of Punta Eugenia and 
6-9 ft in the rest of the offshore waters of Baja California. 
Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft are found in the Gulf
of California. Elsewhere in the remainder of the Mexican 
offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate or 
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh northwest winds in the
offshore waters of Baja California will diminish to gentle to 
moderate speeds tonight. The 8 to 11 ft seas will slowly subside
to 7-10 ft by late today and to 4 to 7 ft by late Sat. Looking 
ahead, high pressure building southward over the western Gulf of 
Mexico in the wake of a cold front will tighten the gradient in 
southeastern Mexico leading to gale-force gap winds in the Gulf 
of Tehunatepec Sun through late Sun night. These winds are 
expected to generate rough seas downstream from the Tehuantepec 
region.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

A weak high pressure pattern across the region sustain gentle to
moderate easterly trade winds in the Gulf of Papagayo basin, 
along with seas of 2-4 ft. Gentle to moderate northerly winds and
seas of 2-4 ft are present in the Gulf of Panama. However, 
moderate SE winds and seas of 6-8 ft are occurring SW of the 
Galapagos Islands due to a tighter pressure gradient associated 
with a southern hemisphere branch of the ITCZ. Elsewhere, light 
to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will persist across 
the region through the weekend, with late night or early morning 
pulses of locally fresh winds in the Papagayo region. High 
pressure building toward the western Caribbean may lead to strong
gap winds in the Papagayo region by Mon. The moderate winds and
seas SW of the Galapagos Islands will diminish Sat.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A subtropical ridge just north of the area dominates the
remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific waters. The pressure
gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep
tropics support fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds
south of 20N and west of 120W. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft,
with the highest seas occurring near 08N140W. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas are evident.

For the forecast, the aforementioned fresh to strong trade winds 
over the western part of the area will diminish some in coverage 
today, then increase again beginning late tonight and through 
Sat. Seas over this part of the area will change little through 
the weekend. Looking ahead, a large set of northwest swell is 
forecast to begin to intrude into the far northwest corner of the
area starting early on Sat and continue to advance through the 
northwest and north-central waters into Sun. Seas with this set 
of swell will be 8-12 ft through late Sat, with the highest of 
the seas to be confined over the northwest part of the area. It 
appears that the southern extent of this swell set will merge 
with the swell that is over the western part of the area late Sat
night into Sun. Yet another large set of northwest swell is 
depicted by the Wave models to begin to approach the far 
northwest corner late Sun night with seas also peaking to 12 ft.

$$
Delgado