000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080333
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Mar 08 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from northwest Colombia, southwestward to 07N78W 
to 06N83W and to 05N90W, where latest scatterometer data
indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to
04N105W to 02N113W to 01N122W to 01N134W to 04N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 94W-96W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The earlier fresh to strong southwest to west winds that were 
over the northern Gulf of California have diminished to fresh 
speeds. Seas with these winds are 2-4 ft. High pressure remains 
the dominate synoptic weather feature over the waters west 
of Baja California. Moderate to fresh northwest winds are 
present over these waters. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are south of Punta 
Eugenia to near 18N while higher seas of 8-12 ft due to 
northwest swell are north of Punta Eugenia. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate west to northwest winds are noted along with seas of 
4-6 ft.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh northwest winds will
diminish to gentle to moderate speeds on Fri. The 8 to 12 ft 
seas will slowly subside to 6-9 ft by late on Fri and to 4 to 7 
ft bay late on Sat. Looking ahead, high pressure building 
southward over the western Gulf of Mexico in the wake of a cold 
front will tighten the gradient in southeastern Mexico leading 
to gale-force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehunatepec Sun through 
late Sun night. These winds are expected to generate rough seas 
downstream from the Gulf of Tehuantepec region.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Light to gentle winds along with moderate seas persist across 
the region.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will persist across the 
region through the weekend, with late night or early morning 
pulses of locally fresh winds in the Papagayo region. High 
pressure building toward the western Caribbean may lead to strong
gap winds in the Papagayo region by Mon. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is also the dominate synoptic weather feature
across this part of the area. Latest ASCAT satellite data passes 
reveal quite an extensive swath of fresh to strong trade winds 
over the western part of the area from 07N to 20N west of about 
126W. Seas with these winds are 8 to 11 ft due to a combination 
of mixed north and east swell with wind generated waves from the 
trade winds. Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds along 
with moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned fresh to strong trade winds 
over the western part of the area will diminish some in coverage
on Fri, then increase again beginning late Fri night and through
the weekend. Seas over this part of the area will change little 
through the weekend. Looking ahead, a large set of northwest 
swell is forecast to begin to intrude into the far northwest 
corner of the area starting early Sat and continue to advance 
through the northwest and north-central waters into Sun. Seas 
with this swell will be 8-12 ft through late Sat, with the 
highest of the seas to be confined over the northwest part of
the area. It appears that the southern extent of the swell set 
will merge with the swell that is over the western part of the 
area on late Sat night into Sun. Yet another large set of 
northwest swell is indicated by the Wave models to begin to 
approach the far northwest corner late Sun night with seas also 
peaking to 12 ft.

$$
Aguirre