470 
AXPZ20 KNHC 071618
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Mar 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N82W to 05N87W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N87W to 03N110W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 92W and 99W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weakening cold front has reached the coast of Baja California,
extending from the northern Gulf of California to Punta Eugenia
and continues southwest offshore. Ahead of it, fresh to strong 
SW to W gap winds are ongoing in portions of the northern Gulf of
California, with seas up to 4 ft. Moderate to fresh NW winds are
over waters offshore Baja California Sur. Behind the front, 
fresh to strong winds and rough seas are also north of 25N. 
Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft 
prevail.

For the forecast, the cold front will continue to weaken as it
spreads SW across the Baja Peninsula and Gulf of California into
tonight, before dissipating by Fri. Winds behind the front will 
diminish by tonight,with 8 to 11 ft seas building as far S as 
Cabo San Lazaro on Fri. These seas will subside by Fri night. 
Looking ahead, high pressure building south through the western 
Gulf of Mexico is likely to force gale force gap winds to develop
in the Gulf of Tehunatepec Sun through Sun night, accompanied by
rough seas. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Light to gentle winds and moderate seas persist across the 
region.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will persist across the 
region through the weekend, with late night or early morning 
pulses of locally fresh winds in the Papagayo region. High 
pressure building toward the western Caribbean may lead to strong
gap winds in the Papagayo region by Mon. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weakening cold front has reached the coast of Baja California,
extending from Punta Eugenia and continues southwest to 21N125W.
Behind the front, fresh NW winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are 
occurring north of 25N and as far west of 130W, as high pressure
builds in. Elsewhere, high pressure remains the dominate weather
feature over the area. The pressure gradient between this ridge 
and the ITCZ is leading to fresh to strong trades N of the ITCZ 
to about 20N west of 125W. Seas in the region are 8 to 10 ft and
up to 11 ft in the areas of higher trades from 08N to 15N and
west of 135W. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas persist
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the cold front will dissipate today, with 
fresh winds and rough seas N of 25N gradually diminishing from W 
to E. Farther south, fresh to strong trade winds and residual 
swell will maintain 8 to 11 ft combined seas from 00N to 25N west
of 120W into Fri night. Looking ahead, northwesterly swell is 
forecast to bring rough to very rough seas this weekend. Seas of 
12 to 13 ft are possible north of 28N west of 130W during late 
Sat through Sun.

$$
Mora