000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070843
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Mar 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 04N94W. The ITCZ 
continues from 04N94W to 03N110W TO 02N130W to 02N140W. No 
significant convection is noted at this time.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front has reached the coast of Baja California Norte early
this morning. Ahead of it, fresh to strong SW to W gap winds are
ongoing in portions of the northern Gulf of California, with
moderate to fresh NW winds for waters offshore Baja California
Sur. Behind the front, fresh to locally strong NW winds prevail
with seas of 7 to 10 ft. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate
winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail, except over the Gulf of
California where seas are 2 to 4 ft. 

For the forecast, the cold front will spread SW across the Baja
Peninsula and Gulf of California into tonight, before
dissipating by Fri. Winds behind the front will diminish by
tonight, but 8 to 11 ft seas will build SE as far S as Cabo San
Lazaro Fri, before diminishing Fri night. Looking ahead, high 
pressure building south through the western Gulf of Mexico is 
likely to force gale force gap winds to develop in the Gulf of 
Tehunatepec Sun through Sun night, accompanied by rough seas. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Light to gentle winds and moderate seas persist across the 
region.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will persist across the 
region through the weekend, with late night or early morning 
pulses of locally fresh winds in the Papagayo region. High 
pressure building toward the western Caribbean may lead to strong
gap winds in the Papagayo region by Mon. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from 28N116W to 23N130W. Behind the front, 
fresh NW winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft area occurring, as high
pressure rebuilds S into the waters. The pressure gradient 
Elsewhere, high pressure remains the dominate weather feature 
over the area. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the 
ITCZ is leading to fresh trades N of the ITCZ to about 24N W of 
115W, with locally strong trades S of 20N and W of 135W. Seas in
the region of higher trades are 8 to 11 ft. Seas to 8 ft in 
mixed northerly and southerly swell are also south of 00N and 
west of 110W. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas persist 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the cold front will move E of the area and
dissipate today, with fresh winds and rough seas N of 25N 
gradually diminishing from W to E. Farther south, fresh to 
strong trade winds and residual swell will maintain 8 to 11 ft 
combined seas from 00N to 25N west of 120W into Fri night. 
Looking ahead, northwesterly swell is forecast to bring rough to
very rough seas this weekend. Seas of 12 to 13 ft are possible 
north of 28N west of 130W during late Sat through Sun.

$$
Konarik