152 AXPZ20 KNHC 042158 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Mar 4 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Swell Event: An area of long-period northwest to north swell with a period of 12-16 seconds covers the waters north of 05N and west of 120W. Seas of 10-13 ft are over these waters. The swell will gradually subside through this morning. Seas of 8-10 ft are currently impacting the waters west of Baja California as far south as the Revillagigedo Islands. Please read the latest High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 05N100W. The ITCZ continues from 05N100W to 00N115W to 03N120W, 02N125W to 03N135W, and from 03N137W to beyond 03N140W. No significant weather is evident at this time. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details on a significant swell event that is presently impacting the offshore waters N of 25N. A scatterometer pass from around 18 UTC confirmed fresh to strong NW winds along the coast of Baja California Norte south of 30N to Punta Eugenia. These winds are funnelling between high pressure west of the region and the mountainous coast. Earlier altimeter passes indicated combined seas of 10 to 12 ft, but this has subsided slightly over the past several hours. Gentle to moderate winds and seas persist elsewhere, except for slight seas over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient across the offshore waters west of Baja California is supporting fresh NW winds north of Cabo San Lazaro, funneling to strong near the coast. Long- period northwest swell will continue to build seas to a peak of 12 ft to the Revillagigedo Islands through this morning, subsiding below 12 ft by tonight and to just below 8 ft by midweek. A cold front will approach Baja California Norte Wed night into Thu morning then dissipate. This pattern will support fresh to strong westerly gap winds over the northern Gulf of California late Wed into Thu. Looking ahead, large NW swell will move into the waters off Baja California Norte by late Thu, and reach as far south as Cabo San Lazaro by early Sat before subsiding. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Light to gentle winds and moderate seas persist across the region this afternoon. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will persist across the region through mid week. Expect moderate to fresh winds across the Gulf of Papagayo by Thu as high pressure builds north of the area. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details on a significant swell event that is presently impacting the waters west of 120W. High pressure remains the dominate weather feature over the area, north of 10N and west of 100W. A scatterometer pass from 18 UTC showed a large area of fresh to strong NE trade winds from roughly 05N to 10N between roughly 130W and 140W, south of the high pressure. Seas associated with these winds are combining with the northerly swell to produced wave heights of 10 to 13 ft across this region. Combined seas in excess of 8 ft extend over most of the discussion area west of 110W, primarily in northerly swell. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas persist elsewhere. For the forecast, a cold front enters the waters north of 25N by late Tue, accompanied by fresh NW winds and rough seas. The front will reach the coast of Baja California by late Wed night or early Thu morning, delivering 8 to 10 ft combined seas across the waters north of 25N. Farther south, fresh to strong trade winds and residual swell will maintain 8 to 12 ft combined seas through mid week from 05N to 20N west of 120W. $$ Christensen