000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041604
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Mar 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Swell Event: An area of long-period northwest to north
swell with a period of 13-15 seconds covers the waters north of 
10N and west of 120W. Seas of 10-13 ft are over these waters. 
The swell will gradually subside through this morning. Seas of 
8-12 ft are currently impacting the waters west of Baja 
California as far south as the Revillagigedo Islands. 

Please read the latest High Seas issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 05N80W to 04N95W, where 
it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 01N110W to 03N120W
east a trough along 122W. It continues west of the trough near 
03N123W to 02N127W to 03N132W where it intercepts another trough
along 135W. It continues west of the trough along 02N beyond
140W. Scattered moderate convection is near the trough along 122W
from 04N to 06N and from 02N to 04N between 130W and 133W. A
second ITCZ extends along 02S between 100W and 110W. No
significant convection is noted at this time. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details 
on a significant swell event that is presently impacting the
offshore waters N of 25N. 

High pressure is over the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California, with the associated gradient producing fresh to
strong NW winds mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro, with 8-12 ft 
combined seas primarily in NW swell. Light to gentle winds 
continue over the central and south parts of the Gulf of 
California, while moderate to fresh southwest to west winds are 
over the northern part of the Gulf. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range 
across the Gulf. Over the remainder of the Mexican offshore 
waters, light to gentle winds are present as were highlighted in 
overnight scatterometer data.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient across the 
offshore waters west of the Baja California peninsula is 
supporting fresh to strong NW winds north of Cabo San Lazaro. 
Long-period northwest swell will continue to build seas to a peak
of 12 ft to the Revillagigedo Islands through this morning, 
subsiding below 12 ft by tonight and to just below 8 ft by 
midweek.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh northeast winds prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo region,
with seas to 6 ft. Gentle north to northeast winds are noted in 
the Gulf of Panama, with seas of 4-5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas continue.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds over the Gulf of 
Papagayo will diminish by Tue, and again Thu. Moderate winds and 
seas will persist elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details 
on a significant swell event that is presently impacting the 
waters west of 120W. 

High pressure is the dominate weather feature over the area, 
north of 10N and west of 100W. Large long-period swell is 
propagating across the northern forecast waters, with seas of 
10-13 ft north of 10N and west of 120W. Fresh to strong trade 
winds, and seas of 10-12 ft are over the waters from 05N to 20N 
west of 120W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are 
present over the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the high 
pressure to the north and lower pressures in the vicinity of the
ITCZ will continue to support an area of fresh trade winds 
across the waters west of 120W today. The large set of northwest
long- period swell will continue to spread across the area 
through today, with seas of 8 ft and greater seas covering most 
of the waters north of 05N and west of 110W through Tue. A cold 
front is expected to move across the northwest waters by late 
Tue, followed by fresh northwest winds and seas of 8-9 ft. As the
front moves E, seas will peak to 11 ft in the wake of the front 
N of 25N through the end of the week. 

$$
Christensen