000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040912
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Mar 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Swell Event: An area of long-period northwest to north
swell with a period of 13-15 seconds covers the waters N of 16N 
and W of 120W. Seas of 10-13 ft are over these waters. The swell
will gradually subside through this morning. Seas of 8-12 ft 
are currently impacting the waters west of Baja California N of 
Cabo San Lazaro. 

Please read the latest High Seas issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 04N93W, where it 
transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 03N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 60 nm on either side of the ITCZ 
mainly W of 120W. A second ITCZ is south of the equator 
extending from 05S89W to 05N117W. No significant convection is 
noted.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details 
on a significant swell event that is presently impacting the
offshore waters N of 25N. 

High pressure is over the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California, with the associated gradient producing moderate 
to fresh northwest winds N of 21N. Seas of 8-12 ft are over 
these waters, with the highest of the seas N of Cabo San Lazaro. 
Light to gentle winds continue over the central and south parts 
of the Gulf of California, while moderate to fresh southwest to 
west winds are over the northern part of the Gulf. Seas are in 
the 1-3 ft range across the gulf. Over the remainder of the 
Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds are present as 
were highlighted in overnight scatterometer data.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient across the offshore
waters W of Baja California peninsula will induce fresh to 
strong winds today N of 24N. Long-period northwest swell will 
continue to build seas to a peak of 12 ft into north of Cabo San 
Lazaro through this morning, subsiding below 12 ft by tonight 
and to just below 8 ft by midweek. Seas to 8 ft will continue
near the Revillagigedo Islands through midweek. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh northeast winds prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo region,
with seas to 6 ft. Gentle north to northeast winds are noted in 
the Gulf of Panama, with seas of 4-5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas continue.

For the forecast, winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will 
increase to fresh speeds at night and diminish in the afternoons 
through Wed. In the Gulf of Panama, gentle to moderate north 
winds and seas of 3-5 ft will continue over the next several 
days. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft will 
prevail over the next several days. Elsewhere, light to gentle 
winds and seas of 3-5 ft due to south to southwest swell are 
expected into midweek.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details 
on a significant swell event that is presently impacting the 
waters W of 120W. 

High pressure is the dominate weather feature over the area, 
N of 12N and W of 100W. Large long-period swell is propagating 
across the northern forecast waters, with seas of 10-13 ft N of 
14N and W of 120W. Fresh to strong trade winds, and seas of 10-12
ft are over the waters from 05N to 18N W of 120W. Moderate or 
weaker winds and moderate seas are present over the remainder of 
the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the high 
pressure to the N and lower pressures in the vicinity of the 
ITCZ will continue to support an area of fresh trade winds 
across the waters W of 120W today. The aerial coverage of the 
trades will increase by midweek. The large set of northwest 
long-period swell will continue to spread across the area 
through today, with seas of 8 ft and greater seas covering most 
of the waters N of 05N and W of 110W through Tue. A cold front 
is expected to move across the northwest waters by late Tue, 
followed by fresh northwest winds and seas of 8-9 ft. As the
front moves E, seas will peak to 11 ft in the wake of the front 
N of 25N through the end of the week. 

$$
ERA