000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040304 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Mar 4 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Swell Event: An area of long-period northwest to north swell with a period of 13-15 seconds covers the waters N of 16N and W of 120W. Seas of 12-15 ft are over these waters. The swell will gradually subside through Mon morning. Before then, seas of 8-12 ft will impact the waters west of Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro. Please read the latest High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N78W to 05N91W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm on either side of the ITCZ mainly W of 117W. A second ITCZ is south of the equator extending from 04S87W to 05N121W. No significant convection is noted. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details on a significant swell event that is presently impacting the waters north of 25N. High pressure is over the offshore forecast waters of Baja California, with the associated gradient producing moderate to fresh northwest winds. Seas of 8-12 ft are over these waters, with the highest of the seas north of Cabo San Lazaro. Light to gentle winds continue over the central and south parts of the Gulf of California, while moderate to fresh southwest to west winds are over the northern part of the Gulf. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range across most of the gulf except north of 29N, where 3-4 ft seas are present. Over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds are present as were highlighted in overnight scatterometer data. For the forecast, strong high pressure will continue to build across the area through Mon. The resulting tight gradient will increase the moderate to fresh northwest to north winds west of Baja California to fresh to strong speeds on Mon and Mon night. Long-period northwest swell will continue to build seas to a peak of 12 ft into north of Cabo San Lazaro through tonight. Seas will subside to 8-11 ft over the offshore waters of Baja California through Mon night and to just below 8 ft by midweek. midweek. Seas to 8 ft will reach the Revillagigedo Islands into Mon morning. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Latest ASCAT satellite data pass depicts fresh northeast winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas there are 4-6 ft. Gentle north to northeast winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama, with seas of 4-5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas continue. For the forecast, winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will increase to fresh speeds at night and diminish in the afternoons through Wed. In the Gulf of Panama, gentle to moderate north winds and seas of 3-5 ft will continue over the next several days. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft will prevail over the next several days. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft due to south to southwest swell are expected into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details on a significant swell event that is presently impacting the waters W of 120W. High pressure is the dominate weather feature over the area, N of 12N and W of 100W. Large long-period swell is propagating across the northern forecast waters, with seas of 12-15 ft N of 16N and W of 120W. Fresh trade winds, and seas of 8-10 ft are over the waters from 05N to 15N W of 120W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are present over the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, strong high pressure will continue to build across the forecast region. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ will support an area of fresh trade winds across the west- central waters. The aerial coverage of the trades will increase tonight into Mon morning. The large set of northwest long- period swell will continue to spread across the area through Mon, with seas of 8 ft and greater seas covering most of the waters N of 05N and W of 110W by Mon morning. A cold front is expected to move across the northwest waters Tue, followed by fresh to strong northwest winds and seas of 8-9 ft. $$ ERA