000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031555
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Mar 03 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Swell Event: An area of long-period northwest to north
swell with a period of 11-13 seconds covers the waters north of 
25N between 119W-137W. Seas peaking to 15 ft are over these 
waters. The swell will gradually subside through Mon morning, but 
before then, seas of 9-13 ft will impact the waters west of Baja
California north of Cabo San Lazaro today and tonight. Please 
read the latest High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from 07N78W to 05N85W, where latest
scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the 
ITCZ and continues to 04N100W to 02N112W and to 02N128W. IT 
resumes at 02N135W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 60 NM north of the ITCZ between 135W-140W.
A second ITCZ extends from 06S85W to 03S100W to 05S114W to
05S120W to 04S130W. No significant convection is noted.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure is over the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California, with the associated gradient producing moderate 
to fresh northwest winds. Seas of 8-12 ft are over these waters,
except for slighter higher seas of 9-13 ft north of Punta 
Eugenia. Light to gentle winds continue over the central and 
south parts of the Gulf of California, while moderate to fresh 
southwest to west winds are over the northern part of the Gulf. 
Seas are in the 1-3 ft range across most of the gulf except N of 
29N, where 3-4 ft seas are present. Over the remainder of the 
Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds are present as 
were highlighted in overnight scatterometer data.

For the forecast, strong high pressure will continue to build  
across the area through Mon. The resulting tight gradient will
increase the moderate to fresh northwest to north winds west of 
Baja California to fresh to strong speeds on Mon and Mon night. 
Long-period northwest swell will continue to build seas to a 
peak of 12 or 13 ft north of Cabo San Lazaro through tonight.
Seas will subside to 8-11 ft over the offshore waters of Baja 
California through Mon night and to just below 8 ft by midweek.
midweek. Seas to 8 ft will reach the Revillagigedo Islands into 
Mon morning. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure over the western Atlantic is maintaining fresh to 
strong northeast to east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. 
Seas over these waters are 5-7 ft. Fresh to strong northeast to
east winds are in the Gulf of Panama, with seas of 5-6 ft just
south of the Azuero Peninsula to about 05N. Elsewhere, moderate 
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas continue.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue
to support fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the 
Papagayo region through early this afternoon, with seas to 7 ft. 
In the Gulf of Panama, gentle to moderate north winds and seas of
3-5 ft will prevail over the next several days. Elsewhere, light
to gentle winds are expected with seas of 4-6 ft through 
tonight, subsiding to 3-4 ft Mon. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details 
on a significant swell event that is presently impacting the 
waters north of 25N and east of 137W. 

High pressure is the dominate weather feature over the area, 
north of about 14N and west of 110w. Large long-period swell is 
propagating across the northern forecast waters, with seas of 
11-15 ft north of 25N between 119W-137W. Fresh trade winds, and 
seas of 8-10 ft are over the waters from 05N to 15N W of 120W. 
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are present over the 
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, strong high pressure will continue to build 
across the forecast region. The pressure gradient between the 
high pressure and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ 
will support an area of fresh trade winds across the west- 
central waters. The aerial coverage of the trades will increase 
by tonight into Mon morning as the pressure gradient tightens.
The large set of northwest long-period swell will continue to 
spread across the area through Mon, with seas of 8 ft and greater
seas covering most of the waters north of 05N and west of 110W 
by Mon morning.

$$
Aguirre