000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030903
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Mar 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough is analyzed from 07N78W to 05N97W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N97W to 03N140W. A second ITCZ extends along 
04S between 87W and 135W. Scattered showers are noted along the 
axes.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds with seas 
of 4 to 7 ft, except 8 to 12 ft in NW swell in the offshore 
waters N of 24N. Light to gentle winds prevail in the central and
south parts of the Gulf of California, while moderate to fresh W
to NW winds are noted in the northern part of the Gulf. Seas are 
in the 1 to 3 ft range across most of the gulf except N of 29N,
where 3-5 ft seas are noted. Over the remainder of the Mexican 
offshore waters, light to gentle winds are seen per scatterometer
data with seas of 4 to 5 ft primarily in long period SW swell. 

For the forecast, strong high pressure will continue to build  
across the area. This will bring fresh to strong NW winds W of 
the Baja California peninsula today. Long period NW swell will 
continue to build seas to 12 ft W of Baja California Norte today.
The swell event will propagate across the entire Baja California
offshore waters by tonight. At this time, seas of 8 to 11 ft are
expected. Sea heights of 8 ft will reach the Revillagigedo 
Islands into Mon morning. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure over the western Atlantic is maintaining fresh to 
strong northeast to east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. 
Seas over these waters are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate N winds are
pulsing in the Gulf of Panama, with seas of 4 to 5 ft just S of 
the Azuero Peninsula to about 05N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds and slight to moderate seas continue.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue
to support fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Papagayo region 
through this afternoon, with seas building to 6 to 7 ft. In the 
Gulf of Panama, gentle to moderate N winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft 
will prevail over the next several days. Elsewhere, light to 
gentle winds are expected with seas of 4 to 6 ft through the 
weekend, then subsiding to 2 to 4 ft toward the middle of next 
week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge dominates most of the forecast waters N of 12N 
and W of 105W. A swell event is propagating across the northern 
forecast waters, with seas of 12 to 16 ft N of 24N W of 118W. A 
couple of altimeter passes confirmed the presence of these seas 
heights. Fresh trade winds, and seas of 8 to 9 ft are affecting 
the area from 05N to 15N W of 120W. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are present over the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, strong high pressure will continue to build 
across the forecast region. The pressure gradient between the 
high pressure and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ 
will support an area of fresh trade winds across the west- 
central waters. The aerial coverage of the trades will increase 
by tonight into Mon morning as the pressure gradient intensifies.
The large set of northwest swell will continue to spread across 
the area through Mon, with seas of 8 ft and greater seas covering
most of the waters N of 05N and W of 110W by Mon morning. 

$$
ERA