000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022117
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Mar 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 04N92W to 01N110W to 03N120W, then resumes
W of a trough from 04N128W to 03N140W. A trough is within the
ITCZ along 124W and S of 06N. Some shower activity is on both 
sides of the trough axis. Elsewhere, convection is limited.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds with seas 
of 4 to 7 ft, except 7 to 10 ft in NW swell in the outer offshore
waters N of Punta Eugenia. Light to gentle winds prevail in the
central and south parts of the Gulf of California, while gentle
to moderate W to NW winds are noted in the northern part of the 
Gulf. Seas are generally in the 1 to 3 ft range. Over the 
remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds
are seen per scatterometer data with seas of 4 to 5 ft primarily
in long period SW swell. 

For the forecast, strong high pressure will continue to build  
across the area. This will bring fresh to strong NW winds W of 
the Baja California peninsula beginning on Sun. Long period NW 
swell will build seas to 12 ft W of Baja California Norte on Sun.
This swell event will propagate across the entire Baja California
offshore waters by Sun night. At this time, seas of 8 to 11 ft 
are expected. Sea heights of 8 ft will reach the Revillagigedo 
Islands Sun night into Mon morning. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure over the western Atlantic is maintaining fresh to 
strong northeast to east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. 
Seas over these waters are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate N winds are in 
the Gulf of Panama. Moderate to locally fresh N winds and seas 
of 4 to 6 ft dominate the waters just S of the Azuero Peninsula 
to about 05N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas continue.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue
to support pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Papagayo
region tonight, with seas building to 6 to 7 ft. In the Gulf of 
Panama, gentle to moderate N winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft will 
prevail over the next several days. Elsewhere, light to gentle 
winds are expected with seas of 4 to 6 ft through the weekend, 
then subsiding to 2 to 4 ft toward the middle of next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge dominates most of the forecast waters N of 15N 
and W of 110W. A swell event is propagating across the northern
forecast waters, with seas of 12 to 17 ft N of 25N W of 125W. A
couple of altimeter passes confirmed the presence of these seas 
heights. Fresh to locally strong trade winds, and seas of 8 to 9 
ft are affecting the area from 05N to 14N W of 130W. Moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are present over the remainder of
the basin.

For the forecast, strong high pressure will continue to build 
across the forecast region. The pressure gradient between the 
high pressure and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ 
will support an area of fresh to locally strong trade winds 
across the west-central waters. The aerial coverage of the trades
will increase by Sun night into Mon morning as a 1028 mb high
pressure settles near 30N140W. The large set of northwest swell 
will continue to spread across the area through Mon, with seas of
8 ft and greater seas covering most of the waters N of 05N and W
of 110W by Mon morning. 

$$
GR