000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020254
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Mar 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 04N91W to 04N140W. A second ITCZ is south 
of the Equator, extending from 03S86W to 03S124W. Scattered 
moderate convection is S of 05N between 110W and 125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds with seas 
of 4 to 6 ft. Similar wind speeds are noted in the southern Gulf 
of California while light and variable winds are noted in the 
central part of the Gulf. Gentle southerly winds prevail in the 
northern part of the Gulf of California, with seas generally near 1
to 2 ft. Seas in the 3 to 4 ft range are noted near the entrance
to the Gulf of California, and between Los Cabos and Las Marias 
Islands. Over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, 
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are 
observed.

For the forecast, a weakening cold front will move across the
offshore waters of Baja California Norte on Sat. Strong high
pressure will follow the front. As a result, fresh to strong NW 
winds will develop W of the Baja California peninsula by early 
next week. NW swell preceding the front will build seas to 12 ft 
W of Baja California Norte beginning on Sun. This swell event 
will propagate across the entire Baja California offshore waters 
by Sun night. At this time, seas of 8 to 11 ft are expected.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure over the western Atlantic is maintaining fresh to 
strong northeast to east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. 
Seas over these waters are 6 to 8 ft. Moderate N winds are in 
the Gulf of Panama, extending southward to near 04N, along with 
seas of 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
slight to moderate seas continue.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue
to support fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Papagayo region
tonight, then again Sat night with seas building to 6 to 8 ft. 
In the Gulf of Panama, gentle to moderate N winds and seas of 3 
to 5 ft will prevail over the next several days. Elsewhere, light 
to gentle winds are expected with seas of 4 to 6 ft through Sun,
then subsiding to 2 to 4 ft toward mid-week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge dominates most of the forecast waters N of 15N 
and W of 110W. A cold front stretches from 30N126W TO 25N140W.
NW swell event prevails in the wake of the front, with building 
seas to 8 to 13 ft over the NW corner of the area. Fresh trade 
winds and seas to 8 ft are affecting the area from 05N to 16N W 
of 115W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are present 
over the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the cold front will continue to move SE across
the northern forecast waters over the next 24 to 36 hours while
weakening. Strong high pressure will build in the wake of the
front. A large set of northwest swell will accompany the front, 
with the leading edge of 8 ft and greater seas expected to reach 
the waters NW of a line from 30N118W to 22N130W to 18N140W by 
Sat afternoon. This swell is forecast to spread across most of 
the waters N of 05N and W of 115W by Sun night with seas 
subsiding below 12 ft. 

$$
ERA