000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011554
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Mar 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 05N90W to 00N110W TO 01S140W. A second 
ITCZ is south of the Equator, extending from 02S84W to 03S120W. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 05N between 100W and
120W, and from 06S to 03S between 110W and 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft.  
Similar wind speeds are noted in the central and south parts of 
the Gulf of California while light to gentle southerly winds
prevail in the northern part of the Gulf with seas of 1 to 2 ft.
Seas in the 3 to 4 ft range are noted near the entrance to the
Gulf of California, and between Los Cabos and Las Marias 
Islands. Over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, 
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are noted.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh winds offshore Baja California 
Norte reaching as far south as Punta Abreojos will continue  
through Sun. Looking ahead, fresh to strong NW winds will 
develop W of the Baja California peninsula by early next week as 
high pressure builds following a cold front. NW swell preceding 
the front will build seas to 12 ft W of Baja California Norte 
beginning on Sun. This swell event will propagate across the
entire Baja California offshore waters by Sun night. At that
time, seas of 8 to 11 ft are expected.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the 
western Atlantic is maintaining fresh to strong northeast to east
winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas over these waters are
6 to 8 ft. Fresh north to northeast winds are in the Gulf of 
Panama, extending southward to 04N, along with seas of 4 to 6 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 
continue.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue
to support pulsing strong winds during the nights and early 
mornings through the weekend in the Gulf of Papagayo, with seas 
6 to 8 ft. Northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse to 
fresh speeds tonight and to moderate speeds or less thereafter.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1022 mb located near 26N131W extends a ridge
towards the Revillagigedo Islands. A cold front stretches from
30N129W to 27N140W. A swell event is in the wake of the front
building seas to 8 to 12 ft over the NW corner of the area. Fresh
to locally strong trade winds and seas to 8 ft dominate the area
from 08N to 15N W of 130W. Altimeter data provide observations of
8 to 9 ft seas S of 10N between 105W and 130W enhanced by SW 
swell. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are present 
over the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the cold front will continue to move SE across
the northern forecast waters over the next 24 to 36 hours while
weakening. Strong high pressure will build in behind it. A large
set of northwest swell will accompany the front, with the 
leading edge of 8 ft and greater seas expected to reach the
waters NW of a line from 30N118W to 22N130W to 18N140W by Sat
morning, and N of a line from 30N116W to 22N114W to 12N130W to 
10N135W by Sun morning. Seas to 12 to 14 ft are expected N of 
25N and W of 120W over the weekend.

$$
GR