000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010906
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Mar 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 04N90W to 06N140W. A second ITCZ is south 
of the Equator, extending from 05S89W to 03S120W. Scattered 
showers are noted along both ITCZ and W of 100W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the Mexican offshore waters.
Moderate to fresh northerly winds are over the southern portions
of the Gulf of California, where seas are 3 to 4 ft. Light to
moderate winds prevail over the remainder of the gulf mainly N 
of 25N, with seas to 2 ft. Moderate to fresh NW winds are west of
the Baja California peninsula N of 22N and E of 116W. Fresh N 
winds continue in the Gulf Tehuantepec, with seas to 6 ft. Over 
the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, moderate or weaker 
winds and slight to moderate seas are noted.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh winds offshore Baja California 
Norte reaching as far south as Punta Abreojos will continue  
through Sun. The fresh winds over the Tehuantepec region will 
weaken today and continue through the weekend. Looking ahead,  
fresh to strong NW winds will develop W of the Baja California 
peninsula by early next week as high pressure builds following a 
front. NW swell preceding the front will build seas to 12 ft W
of Baja California Norte beginning on Sun.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the 
western Atlantic is maintaining fresh to strong northeast to east
winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas over these waters are
5 to 7 ft. Fresh north to northeast winds are in the Gulf of 
Panama, extending southward to 04N, along with seas of 4 to 6 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 
continue.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue
to support pulsing strong winds during the nights and early 
mornings through the weekend in the Gulf of Papagayo, with seas 
5 to 7 ft. Northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse to 
fresh to strong speeds tonight and to moderate speeds or less 
thereafter.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging prevails across the area. Fresh trade winds are 
noted from 07N to 17N W of 110W. Seas to 8 ft are noted with
these winds. Another area of seas of 8-9 ft prevails S of 01N
between 103W-120W, enhanced by SW swell. Moderate or weaker 
winds and moderate seas are present over the remainder of the 
basin.

For the forecast, seas to 8 ft seas from 07N to 17N will expand 
between 115W and 140W through Sat due to the fresh trades winds 
over the western part of the area. These winds will continue 
through this evening as a cold front moves across the north- 
central waters while strong high pressure builds in behind it. A 
large set of northwest swell will accompany the front, with the 
leading edge of 8 ft and greater seas expected to reach from near
30N118W to 22N130W to 20N140W by early Sat morning. Seas to 12 
to 15 ft are expected N of 25N and W of 120W over the weekend.

$$
ERA