613 
AXPZ20 KNHC 290904
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Feb 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ begins at 03N93W and continues to 04N134W. Scattered 
moderate convection prevails along the ITCZ and W of 103W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the Mexican offshore waters. 
Light and variable winds prevail over the northern Gulf of 
California, with seas of 1-2 ft. Moderate northwest to north 
winds are along the offshore waters from 16N to 25N, with seas 
to 6 ft. Over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, 
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are noted.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh winds are forecast to develop 
nightly just offshore Cabo Corrientes and Cabo San Lucas through 
today. A brief Tehuantepec gap wind event will begin this morning  
and continue through tonight as strong high pressure builds 
north of the basin, supporting fresh to strong north winds. 
Conditions will improve by Fri and continue through the weekend.
Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds will develop W of the Baja 
California peninsula by early next week as a frontal boundary 
approaches from the W. Seas to 11 ft will develop in this area.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the 
western Atlantic is maintaining fresh to strong northeast to east
winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas over these waters are
5-8 ft. Fresh north to northeast winds are in the Gulf of 
Panama, extending southward to 04N, along with seas of 4-6 ft. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 
continue.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue
to support pulsing strong winds during the nights and early 
mornings for the next few days in the Gulf of Papagayo, with seas
to 8 ft. Northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse to 
fresh to strong speeds at night through the next few days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging prevails across the area, anchored by a 1027 mb
high centered near 31N125W. Fresh trade winds are noted from 05N
to 19N W of 115W and from 03N to 11N between 94W-115W. Seas to 8
ft in decaying long-period northwest to north swell prevails in
this area. Another area of seas to 9 ft in SW swell prevails S of
08N between 107W and 126W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas are present over the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the 8-9 ft seas across the whole area will
dissipate slowly through the weekend. In the long-term, trade 
winds will increase again to fresh by late Fri over the western 
part of the area as a cold front begins to advance across the 
north-central waters and strong high pressure builds in behind 
it. A large set of northwest swell will accompany the front, with
the leading edge of 8 ft and greater seas expected to reach from
near 30N120W to 25N130W to near 21N140W by late Fri night. Seas 
to 14 ft are expected N of 27N and W of 120W over the weekend.

$$
ERA