000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290235
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Feb 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 02N91W. The ITCZ begins 
at 02N91W and continues to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection
prevails along the ITCZ mainly W of 105W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough is entering the northwestern Mexico area. 
A recent altimeter satellite data pass indicates seas of 5-7 ft 
roughly N of 28N. Light and variable winds prevail over the 
northern Gulf of California, with seas of 2-3 ft. Moderate 
northwest to north winds are along the offshore waters from 18N 
to 24N, with seas to 6 ft. Over the remainder of the Mexican 
offshore waters, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate 
seas are noted.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh winds are forecast to develop 
nightly just offshore Cabo Corrientes and Cabo San Lucas through 
Thu. A brief Tehuantepec gap wind event will begin early Thu and
continue through Thu night as strong high pressure builds north 
of the basin supporting fresh to strong north winds. Conditions 
will improve by Fri.

 ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the 
western Atlantic is maintaining fresh to strong northeast to east
winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas over these waters are
5-7 ft. Fresh north to northeast winds are in the Gulf of 
Panama, extending southward to 04N, along with seas of 4-6 ft. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 
continue.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
pulsing strong winds during the nights and early mornings for 
the next few days in the Gulf of Papagayo and downstream waters. 
Seas will build to 7 ft with the strongest winds. Northerly 
winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse to fresh to strong speeds 
at night through the next few days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad upper-level trough is N of 20N between Baja California 
and 130W. An active subtropical jet stream branch to its 
southeast, advecting ample broken to overcast mid to upper-level
clouds northeastward toward southern Baja California and 
northern Mexico. Fresh trade winds are noted from 05N to 20N 
W of 115W and from 03N to 15N between 92W-115W. Seas within 
these areas have subsided to 8 ft in decaying long-period 
northwest to north swell. The remainder of the tropical eastern 
Pacific is under the influence of high pressure. Moderate or 
weaker winds and moderate seas are present over the remainder of 
the basin.

For the forecast, the 8 ft seas will lower by early Thu. In the 
long-term, trade winds will increase again to fresh to locally 
strong starting late Fri over the western part of the area as a 
cold front begins to advance across the north-central waters and
strong high pressure builds in behind it. A large set of 
northwest swell will accompany the front, with the leading edge 
of 8 ft and greater seas expected to reach from near 30N120W to 
25N130W to near 21N140W by late Fri night. Seas to 12 ft are 
expected N of 28N and W of 127W by that time.

$$
ERA