000 AXPZ20 KNHC 282201 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Feb 28 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 06N78W to 04N82W to 02N91W. The ITCZ begins at 02N91W and continues to 01N110W to 04N140W. Increasing numerous moderate convection is within 60 nm of the ITCZ axis between 127W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 00N to 04N between 104W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad jet stream branch to the southeast of a deep upper-level trough west of Baja California continues to send tropical moisture northeastward toward Baja California. An upper-level low embedded within the upper trough is over extreme northwest Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms supported by the upper-level low are moving eastward over far northwest Mexico per latest satellite imagery. A recent altimeter satellite data pass indicates seas of 8-9 ft roughly north of 28N near 120W/121W. The earlier fresh southwest winds over the northern Gulf of California have become light and variable. Seas there are 2-3 ft. Moderate northwest to north winds are along the offshore waters west of Puerto Vallarta from 18N to 20N, with seas to 6 ft. Over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are noted. For the forecast, pulsing fresh winds are forecast to develop nightly just offshore Cabo Corrientes and Cabo San Lucas through Thu. Long-period northwest swell is expected to move into the outermost offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia today before subsiding tonight. A brief Tehuantepec gap wind event will begin early Thu and continue through Thu night as strong high pressure builds north of the basin supporting fresh to strong north winds. Conditions will improve by Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR The gradient associated to high pressure over the western Atlantic is maintaining fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas over these waters are 5-7 ft. Fresh north to northeast winds are in the Gulf of Panama, extending southward to 04N, along with seas of 4-6 ft. A recent observation from ship with identification ID of VRKZ7 near 08N79W had north winds of 20 kt. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas continue. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support pulsing strong winds during the nights and early mornings for the next few days in the Gulf of Papagayo and downstream waters. Seas will build to 7 ft with the strongest winds. Northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse to fresh to strong speeds at night through the next few days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad upper-level trough is north of 21N between Baja California and 135W. An active subtropical jet stream branch to its southeast, advecting ample broken to overcast mid to upper- level clouds northeastward toward southern Baja California and northern Mexico. Mostly fresh trade winds are present from 04N to 19N west of about 120W and from 04N to 15N between 103W-120W. Seas within these area of trade winds have subsided to 8 ft in decaying long-period northwest to north swell. The remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific is under the influence of high pressure. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are present over the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the 8 ft seas will lower to just below 8 ft by early Thu. In the long-term, trade winds will increase again to fresh to locally strong starting late Fri over the western part of the area as a cold front begins to advance across the north- central waters and strong high pressure builds in behind it. A large set of northwest swell will accompany the front, with the leading edge of 8 ft and greater seas expected to reach from near 30N120W to 25N130W to near 21N140W by late Fri night. Seas to 12 ft are expected north of 28N and west of 127W by that time. $$ MORA/Aguirre