000 AXPZ20 KNHC 281551 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Feb 28 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 06N78W to 04N82W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ begins and continues to 02N100W to 02N112W to 05N123W to 05N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 01N to 08N west of 129W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is south of 06N between 103W-120W and also from 03N to 07N between 120W-127W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad jet stream branch to the southeast of a deep upper-level trough west of Baja California continues to advect tropical moisture northeastward toward Baja California. Fresh southwest winds are over the northern Gulf of California. Seas with these winds are 2-3 ft. Fresh winds are noted along the offshore waters W of Puerto Vallarta from 18N to 20N, with seas to 6 ft. Over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are noted. For the forecast, pulsing fresh winds are forecast to develop nightly just offshore Cabo Corrientes and Cabo San Lucas through Thu. Long-period northwest swell is expected to move into the outermost offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia today before subsiding tonight. A brief Tehuantepec gap wind event will begin early Thu and continue through Thu night as strong high pressure builds north of the basin supporting fresh to strong north winds. Conditions will improve by Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR The gradient associated to high pressure over the western Atlantic is maintaining fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas over these waters are 5-7 ft. Fresh north to northeast winds are in the Gulf of Panama, extending southward to 04N, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas continue. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support pulsing strong winds during the nights and early mornings for the next few days in the Gulf of Papagayo and downstream waters. Seas will build to 8 ft with the strongest winds. Northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse to fresh to strong speeds at night through the next few days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... An upper-level trough is over the north-central waters. An active subtropical jet stream branch to its southeast, advecting ample broken to overcast mid to upper-level clouds northeastward toward southern Baja California. Scattered showers are possible N of 20N and E of 120W. Fresh northeast winds are north of 26N between 123W-130W. Seas with these winds are 8-10 ft. Moderate to fresh northeast winds are south of 28N west of 125W. Seas in the area described area 8-10 ft due to long-period northwest to north swell. The remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific is under the influence of high pressure. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are present over the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the 8-10 ft seas will subside to 8-9 ft in long-period north to northwest swell by tonight. In the long- term, trade winds will increase again to fresh to locally strong starting late Fri over the western part of the area as a cold front begins to advance across the north-central waters. A large set of northwest swell will accompany the front, with the leading edge of 8 ft and greater seas expected to reach from near 30N120W to 25N130W to near 20N140W. This set of northwest swell is forecast to usher in seas of 12 ft and greater to the far northern waters at that same time. $$ Aguirre