000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271558 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Feb 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 07N78W to 03N90W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 01N100W to 02N110W and to 05N125W, where it pauses just to the east of a trough. It resumes just to the west of the trough to 03N130W and to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from the Equator to 04N between 103W-110W, and also within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 117W-127W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad jet stream branch that is to the southeast of a deep upper-level trough located well west of Baja California continues to advect ample tropical moisture in the form of overcast mid to upper-level clouds northeastward toward Baja California. Isolated showers are possible underneath these clouds. The clouds are spreading east-northeastward across northern Mexico and Texas. Fresh southwest winds are over the northern Gulf of California. Seas with these winds are 3-4 ft. Fresh northwest winds are south of Cabo San Lucas to near 21N , while moderate or weaker winds prevail in the rest of the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas over the area described are 5-7 ft. Over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the central and southern Gulf of California, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are noted. For the forecast, the fresh southwest over the northern Gulf of California will diminish early this afternoon. Pulsing fresh winds are forecast to develop nightly just offshore Cabo Corrientes and Cabo San Lucas through Thu. Long-period northwest swell is expected to move into the outermost offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia on Wed before subsiding late Wed night. The next Tehuantepec gap wind event will begin early Thu and continue through late Thu night as strong high pressure builds north of the basin supporting strong to near gale-force north winds. Conditions will improve Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR The gradient associated to high pressure over the western Atlantic is maintaining fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region as highlighted by an overnight ASCAT satellite data pass. Seas over these waters are 6-8 ft. Fresh north to northeast winds are in the Gulf of Panama, extending southward to 04N, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas continue. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support pulsing strong to near gale-force winds during the nights and early mornings for the next few days in the Gulf of Papagayo and downstream waters. Seas will build to around 8 ft with the strongest winds. Northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse to fresh to occasionally strong speeds at night through the next few days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A deep upper-level trough is over the northwest waters. A rather active subtropical jet stream branch to its southeast is located from 20N137W, northeastward to 26N125W and to the southern California/norther Baja California. It is advecting ample broken to overcast mid to upper-level clouds northeastward toward Baja California. These clouds extend southeastward to a line from 25N108W to 19N116W and to near 11N124W. Scattered showers are possible within these clouds north of about 22N. The trough is supporting a 1010 mb low centered near 30N123W. A trough extends from the low to 30N120W to 25N123W and to 20N130W. Fresh to strong winds are west-southwest of the low north of 25N between 126W-131W. Seas with these winds are 10-13 ft as observed in overnight altimeter satellite pass. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds are south of 25N west of 128W. Seas in the area described are 8-11 ft due to long-period northwest to north swell. The remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific is under the influence of a 1018 mb high pressure system located NW of the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are present over the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the aforementioned 1010 mb low is forecast to continue to weaken today as it slides eastward. The fresh to strong winds and seas of 10-13 ft associated with the low will diminish tonight into Wed. The fresh to locally strong northeast winds south of 25N and west of 128W will diminish in coverage, and be at mostly fresh speeds by late Wed night. The 8-11 ft seas will subside to 8-9 ft in long-period north swell by late Wed. In the long-term, trade winds will increase again to fresh to locally strong starting late Fri over the western part of the area as a cold front begins to advance across the north-central waters. A large set of northwest swell will accompany the front, with the leading edge of 8 ft and greater seas expected to reach from near 30N120W to 25N130W to near 20N140W. This set of northwest swell bring 12 ft and greater seas to the far northern waters at that same time. $$ Aguirre