000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270925
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Feb 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

An equatorial trough extends from 08N78W to 07N81W. The ITCZ 
stretches from 07N81W to 00N106W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is present from the 
equator to 07N and between 97W and 129W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A deep upper-level trough located well west of Baja California
continues to transport poleward plenty of tropical moisture and 
along with divergence aloft result in isolated to scattered 
showers and ample cloudiness across NW Mexico and the offshore 
waters. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to 
locally strong SW winds in the northern Gulf of California. Seas 
in these waters are 2-4 ft. The scatterometer pass also showed 
fresh NW-W winds off Cabo San Lucas, while moderate or weaker 
winds prevail in the rest of the offshore waters of Baja 
California. Seas in the area described are 5-7 ft. In the 
remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec and the central and southern Gulf of California, 
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are 
prevalent.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong SW winds in the 
northern Gulf of California are expected to diminish early this
morning. Pulsing fresh winds are forecast to develop nightly just
offshore Cabo Corrientes and Cabo San Lucas through Thu. Long- 
period NW swell is expected to move into the outermost offshore 
waters north of Punta Eugenia on Wed before subsiding late Wed 
night. The next Tehuantepec gap wind event will occur Thu into
Thu night as a strong ridge builds north of the basin supporting
strong to near gale-force N winds. Conditions will improve Fri.

 ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

A subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic sustain fresh to
strong easterly trade winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region 
as captured by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in 
these waters are 5-7 ft. Fresh northerly winds are found in the 
Gulf of Panama, extending southward to 04N, along with seas of 
3-5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas continue.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
pulsing strong to near gale-force winds during the nights and 
early mornings for the next few days in the Gulf of Papagayo and 
downstream waters. Seas will build to around 7 ft during the 
strongest winds. Northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse
to fresh to occasionally strong speeds at night through the next
few days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The deep upper-level trough over the NW waters is producing a 
large area of cloudiness and isolated to scattered showers mainly
north of 20N and west of 130W. A broad 1011 mb low pressure 
system centered near 30N125W sustains fresh to strong winds north
of 25N and west of 125W. Seas in these waters are 9-13 ft as
indicated by the latest altimeter satellite pass. A recent 
scatterometer satellite pass also depict fresh to locally strong 
NE winds west of 129W. Seas in the area described are 8-11 ft. 
The rest of the tropical eastern Pacific is under the influence 
of a 1019 mb high pressure system located NW of the Revillagigedo
Islands. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are present 
in the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned low pres is forecast to
continue to weaken today as it slides eastward. The fresh to 
strong winds and seas to 13 ft associated with this system will 
diminish by tonight into Wed. Fresh to strong NW winds and seas 
to 11 ft in the western waters will diminish by early Wed. 
However, winds will increase again to fresh to locally strong in 
the trades waters late this week. The next cold front is set to 
enter the NW waters late this week and northerly swell will 
follow with seas increasing to at least 12 ft Fri.

$$
Delgado