000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270329 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Feb 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0315 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... An equatorial trough extends from 07N78W to 06N83W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N83W to 00N106W to 04N132W. A surface trough is analyzed along 135W, south of 09N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from the equator to 07N and between 102W and 128W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Latest satellite imagery depict a deep upper-level trough well west of Baja California. This system is transporting abundant tropical moisture northward resulting in scattered showers and ample cloudiness affecting most of the Baja California peninsula and offshore waters, Gulf of California and NW Mexico. At the surface, a weak high pressure system positioned west of Baja California Sur continues to dominates the offshore waters of Mexico. However, a tighter pressure gradient in the northern Gulf of California is supporting fresh to locally strong SW winds and seas of 2-4 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, central and southern Gulf of California and the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong SW winds are forecast tonight for the northern Gulf of California. Elsewhere, winds are expected to remain at gentle to moderate speeds through late into the week. Fresh northwest winds develop just offshore Cabo Corrientes and Cabo San Lucas at night through Thu. Long-period NW swell is expected to move into the outermost offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia on Wed before subsiding late Wed night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR A 1026 mb high pressure near Bermuda continues to force fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft, building to around 7 ft tonight. The same weather pattern is also sustaining fresh northerly winds and seas of 3-5 ft in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas continue. For the forecast, ridging north of the area will support pulsing strong to near gale-force winds during the nights and early mornings for the next few days in the Gulf of Papagayo and downstream waters. Seas will build to around 7 ft during the strongest winds. Northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse to fresh to occasionally strong speeds at night through the next few days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A deep upper-level trough over the northwest waters supports the poleward flow of tropical moisture resulting in scattered showers and ample cloudiness north of 20N and west of 130W. A weakening 1009 mb low pressure system located near 32N126W supports fresh to strong winds north of 25N and west of 124W. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 30N133W. The remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific is dominated by a weak high pressure system centered west of Baja California Sur. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are found south of 20N and west of 130W. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are evident in the rest of the trades waters south of 17N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas are evident. For the forecast, the aforementioned low pressure will continue to weaken as it slides eastward through Tue. However, fresh to strong north winds will continue through Tue north of 25N. The seas over the northwest part of the area will gradually subside below 12 ft through Tue, but a large area of 8-11 ft seas will continue through Tue night west of 120N and north of 05N. The seas will gradually subside Wed through Thu. Moderate to fresh trade winds along with seas to 8 ft will be over the eastern waters through early Tue. Farther west, fresh to locally strong trade winds will continue in the western waters through early Wed. Seas with these winds are forecast to peak to around 11 ft tonight into Tue due to long-period northwest to north swell moving through these waters. $$ Delgado