000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262144
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Feb 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Swell in NW waters: The gradient between A 1010 mb
low pressure just north of the area near 31N127W and strong 
high pressure to its west and northwest is allowing for fresh to
strong north winds to exist over the waters north of 27N and 
west of 131W as seen in a recent ASCAT data pass over these 
waters. Northwest to north swell within this area of winds has 
send seas of 11-13 ft within the area of fresh to strong 
winds.ese waters. A recent altimeter data pass indicates seas of
13 ft near 26N140W. The earlier fresh to strong winds that were 
noted south of the low are now mostly fresh winds per latest 
ASCAT data pass over those waters. The area of 12 ft seas will 
gradually decay through Tue as the low pressure lifts to just 
north of the area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for additional information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

Surface trough extends from northwest Colombia 08N78W to 05N87W,
where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to
the ITCZ and continues to 02N104W to 05N120W and to 05N130W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within
180 nm south of the ITCZ between 109W-115W, also within 60 nm 
north of the ITCZ between 105W-108W, between 109W-113W and 
between 119W-127W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate north winds and seas of 4-6 ft are in the 
Tehuantepec region. Elsewhere, relatively weak high pressure is 
present across waters west of Baja California. The associated 
gradient is maintaining light to gentle winds and slight to 
moderate seas over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters 
and the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, winds are expected to remain at gentle to
moderate speeds through late into the week. Fresh northwest 
winds develop just offshore Cabo Corrientes at night through Thu.
Long-period northwest swell is expected to move into the 
outermost offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia on Wed before 
subsiding late Wed night.

 ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region as 
recently observed by ship with call ID "V7A60" at 11N87W. A 
moderate pressure gradient in place also supports moderate
to fresh north to northeast winds and seas of 4-6 ft in the Gulf
of Panama and downstream from there to near 04N. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas continue.

For the forecast, ridging north of the area will support pulsing
strong to near gale-force winds during the nights and early 
mornings for the next few days in the Gulf of Papagayo and 
downstream waters. Seas will build to around 8 ft during the 
strongest winds. Northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse
to fresh to occasionally strong speeds at night through the next
few days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the 
significant swell over the northwest part of the area.

Aside from the low pressure feature discussed in the Special 
Features section, the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific 
remains under relatively weak high pressure that is located west
of Baja California. Moderate to fresh trade winds are south of 
16N and west of 108W. Seas over these waters are 6-8 ft due to 
long-period northwest swell, except for higher seas of 8-11 ft 
west of 128W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds along with 
moderate seas exist.

For the forecast, the aforementioned low pressure will continue 
to weaken as it slides eastward through Tue. However, fresh to 
strong north winds will continue through Tue north of 25N. The 
seas over the northwest part of the area will gradually subside 
below 12 ft through Tue, but a large area of 8-11 ft seas will 
continue through Tue night west of 120N and north of 05N. The 
seas will gradually subside Wed through Thu. Moderate to fresh 
trade winds along with seas to 8 or 9 ft will be over the 
eastern waters through early Tue. Farther west, trade winds will
increase to fresh speeds from the northeast in direction from 
the ITCZ north to near 17N and west of 130W tonight into Wed as 
a trough that currently extends from near 20N125W to 04N135W 
interacts with strong high pressure to its west and northwest. 
Seas with these winds are forecast to peak to around 11 ft due to
long- period northwest to north swell moving through those 
water.

$$
Aguirre