000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261604
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Feb 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Swell in NW waters: A broad 1009 mb low pressure 
system located near 30N129W is producing an area of 11-14 ft 
seas roughly north of 18N and west of 134W as observed in an 
overnight altimeter satellite data pass. Overnight ASCAT
satellite data shows fresh to strong north winds north of 26N 
and west of 129W. The scatterometer data also shows fresh to 
strong southwest to west south of the low to near 23N and between
127W-132W. The area of 12 ft seas will gradually decay through 
Tue as the low pressure lifts to just north of the area. Please 
read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for additional information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from northwest Colombia to 08N78W
to 05N87W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it 
transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 02N104W to 04N114W and 
to 05N130W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection 
is seen within 120 NM north of the ITCZ between 122W-128W, and 
within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 109W-122W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 5-6 ft are present 
in the Tehuantepec region. Elsewhere, relatively weak high 
pressure is present across waters west of Baja California. The 
associated gradient is maintaining light to gentle winds and 
slight to moderate seas over the remainder of the Mexican 
offshore waters and the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, winds are expected to remain mostly at 
moderate or weaker speeds through Mon. Winds in the northern Gulf
of California are forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds
tonight and persist through Tue. Building northwest to north
swell may impact the waters offshore Baja California Norte by 
early Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Overnight ASCAT satellite data shows fresh to strong easterly 
winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region along with seas of 
6-9 ft. A moderate pressure gradient in place also supports 
fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft in the Gulf
of Panama and downstream from there to near 04N. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas continue.

For the forecast, ridging north of the area will support pulsing
strong to near gale-force winds during the nights and early 
mornings over the next several days in the Gulf of Papagayo and 
downstream waters. Seas will build to 7-9 ft during the strongest
winds. Northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse to fresh
to occasionally strong speeds at night through the next few 
days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the 
significant swell over the northwest part of the area.

Aside from the broad low pressure system discussed in the Special
features section, the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific
continues under the influence of a weak ridge positioned west of
Baja California. Overnight ASCAT satellite data shows moderate
to fresh trade winds south of about 16N. Seas over these waters 
have recently build to 7-10 ft in long-period northwest swell.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas 
remain. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned low pressure system will 
continue to weaken as it moves northeastward, just lifting north
of the area by early this evening. However, fresh to strong 
north winds will continue through Tue north of 25N. The seas
over the northwest part of the area will gradually subside below
12 ft through Tue, but a large area of 8-11 ft seas will 
continue through Tue night west of 120N and north of 05N. The 
seas will gradually subside Wed through Thu. Moderate to fresh 
northeast to east winds are forecast to impact the eastern 
waters through early this week. Seas of 8-9 ft will persist into
Tue. Farther west, winds will become fresh from the northeast 
from the ITCZ to near 17N and west of 130W tonight into Wed with 
seas to 11 ft in long-period northwest to north swell.

$$
Aguirre