000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252151
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Feb 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large Swell in NW Waters: A large 1006 mb low pressure centered 
near 27N134.5W is producing a large area of 12 to 19 ft seas 
north of 23N and west of 131W, along with strong to near-gale 
force winds. The 12 ft seas will spread as far south as 18N and 
as far east as 130W tonight. As the low weakens and moves NE, the
winds will diminish to fresh to strong speeds, and the seas will
subside to 9 to 11 ft by Mon evening in that area.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from 06N77W to 02N83W to 01N93W.
The ITCZ stretches from 01N93W to 02N110W to 05N126W. A north- 
south oriented surface trough is analyzed along 128W, from 01N 
to 16N. The ITCZ continues from 04N130W to 02N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 116W and
129W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong NE winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with 
seas 7 to 9 ft. Mainly light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. 
West of Baja California, seas are 5-6 ft. Seas are 1-2 ft in the 
Gulf of California. Elsewhere offshore Mexico, seas are 4 to 6 
ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds will continue across
the Gulf of Tehuantepec through tonight. Seas in the Tehuantepec
region will subside tonight. Elsewhere over the Mexican offshore
waters, winds should generally remain moderate or weaker through
Mon. Winds in the northern Gulf of California are forecast to 
increase to fresh to strong Mon evening and persist through Tue.
Increasing NW to N swell may impact the waters offshore Baja 
California Norte by early Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico is forcing a large area of
strong NE gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region from 08N
to 12.5N and downstream to 91W, according to a recent ASCAT 
satellite wind pass. Seas in these waters are 7 to 10 ft. 
Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are noted in
the Gulf of Panama and downstream to 04N. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the ridge north of the area will support 
pulsing strong to near gale-force winds during the nights and 
early mornings through at least midweek in the Gulf of Papagayo 
and downstream waters, with seas 8 to 9 ft through early this 
week. Northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse to fresh 
to locally strong speeds at night through Tue night, then to 
fresh Wed night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A large 1006 mb low pressure is centered near 27N134.5W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 26.5N between
126W and 136W. Strong to near-gale force winds are to the south
and west of the low pressure, north of 23N and west of 131W. Seas
in this area are 12 to 19 ft. Elsewhere north of 19N and west of
129W, winds are moderate to fresh, winds seas 10 to 15 ft in NW
swell. The 8 ft seas extend southward to 12N and eastward to
125W.

To the east of 124W and north of 18N, gentle anticyclonic winds
prevail due to high pressure ridging, with seas 6 to 7 ft. Fresh
trade winds prevail from the ITCZ to 14N, to the east of 120W,
where seas are 7 to 9 ft. West of 120W and south of 20N, winds
are mainly moderate or weaker.

For the forecast, the low pressure system currently near
27N134.5W will gradually weaken tonight as it moves
northeastward, moving north of the area by Mon morning. Fresh to
strong winds will continue Mon and Tue north of 25N. The seas in
the NW part of the area will mostly subside below 12 ft by Mon
evening, but a large area of 8 to 11 ft seas will continue
through Tue night west of 120N and north of 05N. The seas will
gradually subside Wed into Thu. Fresh NE-E winds will spread 
downstream from the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo, affecting 
the eastern waters through early this week. Seas of 8 to 9 ft
will persist into Mon. Farther west, winds will increase to 
fresh NE from the ITCZ to 17N and west of 130W early this week
with seas to 11 ft in NW to N swell.

$$
Hagen