000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251610
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Feb 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NW Pacific Gale Warning: A 1003 mb gale-force low near 27N136.5W
is producing gale force N winds in a small area to the west of 
its center. Strong to near gale force winds prevail elsewhere N 
of 23N and W of 133W. Seas are up to 22 ft near 27N140W. Seas in 
excess of 12 ft in NW swell are occurring N of 22N and W of 133W.
The low pressure center will drift eastward and then 
northeastward, reaching 30N129W by 1200 UTC Mon before moving N 
of the area and weakening. Winds will diminish below gale force 
later this morning. Very large northerly swell generated from 
this low will continue to propagate southward, impacting the 
western and central subtropical waters. Seas over 12 ft will 
spread as far south as 17N and as far east as 129W through 
tonight before gradually subsiding early next week. Please read 
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 
for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from 07N77.5W to 02N90W to 02N98W.
The ITCZ stretches from 02N98W to 03N122W. A north-south oriented
surface trough is analyzed along 126W, from 01N to 16N. The ITCZ
continues from 05N128W to 01N140W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 00N to 04N between 90W and 98W, and from 01N to 10N
between 115W and 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong to near-gale force N to NE winds are across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec with seas 9 to 12 ft. Mainly gentle winds prevail
elsewhere. West of Baja California, seas are 5-6 ft. Seas are 1-2
ft in the Gulf of California. Elsewhere offshore Mexico, seas are
4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds will continue across
the Gulf of Tehuantepec through tonight. Seas in the Tehuantepec
region will then subside tonight into Mon. Elsewhere over the 
Mexican offshore waters, winds should generally remain moderate 
or weaker through Mon. Winds in the northern Gulf of California
are forecast to increase to fresh to strong by Mon night and
persist through Tue. Some increasing NW to N swell may impact 
the waters offshore Baja California Norte by early Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

A 1021 mb high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico is 
forcing strong easterly trade winds across the Gulf of Papagayo 
region and downstream to 90W. Seas in these waters are 7 to 9 ft.
Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are noted in
the Gulf of Panama and downstream to 04N. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the ridge to the north will support pulsing 
strong to near gale-force at night through at least midweek in 
the Gulf of Papagayo and downstream waters, with seas to 10 ft
today. Northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse to fresh
speeds every night through at least midweek, except to strong
tonight.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section above for information 
about the Gale Warning in the far NW waters. Seas of 8 ft or
greater associated with this system are prevalent N of 14N and W
of 125W.

Aside from the gale-force low near 27N136.5W, a 1017 mb high 
pressure system centered near 24N118W dominates the rest of the 
tropical eastern Pacific. An earlier scatterometer satellite 
pass indicates that moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are 
occurring south of 16N. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are 
prevalent.

For the forecast, due to the strong low pressure in the NW part 
of the area, large NW swell will spread across the waters N of
05N and W of 125W through Tue before gradually subsiding Wed into
Thu. Fresh NE-E winds will spread downstream from the Gulfs of 
Tehuantepec and Papagayo, affecting the eastern waters through 
early next week. Seas will build to around 9 ft late today into 
Mon. Farther west, winds will increase to fresh to locally strong
in the western waters early next week. Seas will build to around
11 ft late Mon in NW to N swell.

$$
Hagen