000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250927 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Feb 25 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A 1023 mb high pressure system over the central Gulf of Mexico continues to support strong to gale-force northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured a large area of 30-35 kt N winds in the gulf. Winds will diminish below gale force early Sunday morning. Fresh to strong N winds will then continue through Sun night. Seas are peaking near 12 ft in the Tehuantepec region and will subside late Sun afternoon. NW Pacific Gale Warning: A 1002 mb gale-force low near 29N137W is producing gale force NW to N winds N of 28N and W of 138W as shown by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Strong to near gale force winds prevail elsewhere N of 24N and W of 133W. Seas are up to 24 ft near 29N140W. Seas in excess of 12 ft in NW swell are occurring N of 23N and W of 133W. The low pressure center will drift southeastward, reaching near 27N134W midday Sun. Gales will spread across the area north of 25N and west of 137W through early Sun morning. Very large northerly swell generated from this low will continue to propagate southward, impacting the western and central subtropical waters. Seas of 20 to 24 ft are expected through Sun morning north of 25N and west of 137W. Seas over 12 ft will spread as far south as 17N and as far east as 129W through Sun night before gradually subsiding early next week. The low pressure will weaken and move N of the area Sun night into early Mon. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial trough extends from 07N77W to 02N91W to 01N106W. The ITCZ stretches from 01N106W to 04N122W. A surface trough is analyzed along 125W, south of 11N and a 1011 mb low pressure is present near 08N125W. ITCZ continues from 04N130W to beyond 02S140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 03N to 10N and between 117W and 131W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for information about the Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A weak pressure pattern remains across the offshore waters of Baja California sustaining primarily light to gentle winds and seas of 5-7 ft. Moderate northerly winds are evident in the central portion of the Gulf of California, while light to gentle winds prevail in the rest of the basin. Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. Outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, mostly gentle winds and 4-6 ft seas are evident in the rest of the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, high pressure in the central Gulf of Mexico will force strong to gale force N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Sun morning. Seas are peaking near 12 ft. Winds and seas in the Tehuantepec region will then diminish Sun into Mon as the high pressure shifts eastward. Elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters, winds should generally remain moderate or weaker through Mon. Winds in the northern Gulf of California could increase to fresh to strong by Mon night or Tue. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR A 1023 mb high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico is forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region and downstream to 90W. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft and will gradually build to 8-10 ft over the next 6 hours. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are noted in the Gulf of Panama. Seas of 6-7 ft in primarily NW swell are occurring to the east of the Galapagos Islands. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, ridge to the north will support pulsing strong to near gale-force at night through at least midweek in the Gulf of Papagayo and downstream waters. Seas will build to around 10 ft Sun. Northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse to fresh speeds every night through at least midweek, except to strong on Sun night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section above for information about the Gale Warning in the far NW waters. Aside from the gale-force low near 29N137W, a 1019 mb high pressure system centered near 27N120W dominates the rest of the tropical eastern Pacific. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are occurring south of 16N. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast aside from Gale Warning area, fresh NE-E winds will spread downstream from the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo, affecting the eastern waters through early next week. Seas will build to around 9 ft late Sun into Mon. Farther west, winds will increase to fresh to locally strong in the western waters early next week. Seas will build to around 11 ft late Mon in NW to N swell. $$ Delgado