000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242206 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Feb 24 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2120 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure of 1024 mb is centered over the NW Gulf of Mexico in the wake of a Gulf of Mexico cold front. The pressure gradient is caused enhanced northerly flow through the Chivela Pass, resulting in strong to gale-force northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The gales will continue through tonight, before diminish below gale force Sunday morning. Fresh to strong N winds will then continue through Sun night. Seas will peak near 12 ft tonight. Seas in the Tehuantepec region will subside late Sun afternoon. NW Pacific Gale Warning: A 1000 mb gale-force low near 31N137W is producing gale force NW to N winds N of 29N and W of 138W. Strong to near gale force winds prevail elsewhere N of 26N and W of 135W. A satellite altimeter pass from 24/1600 UTC showed seas to 19 ft in the area. However, since that time, seas have likely built to 20 to 24 ft across the area. Seas in excess of 12 ft in NW swell are occurring N of 24N and W of 133W. The low pressure center will drift southeastward, reaching near 27N134W midday Sun. Gales will spread across the area north of 25.5N and west of 136.5W through early Sun morning. Very large northerly swell generated from this low will continue to propagate southward, impacting the western and central subtropical waters. Seas of 20 to 26 ft are expected through Sun morning north of 25N and west of 137W. Seas over 12 ft will spread as far south as 17N and as far east as 129W through Sun night before gradually subsiding early next week. The low pressure will weaken and move N of the area Sun night into early Mon. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial trough extends from 07N77W to 02N88W to 04N104W. The ITCZ stretches from 04N104W to 05N121W to 01N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N to 10N between 100W and 109W and from 05N to 10N between 120W and 126W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for information about the Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A weak 1017 mb high pressure system located near 27N121W is squeezed between a strong low pressure to the west and lower pressures over Mexico. The weak gradient west of Baja California results in light to gentle winds there. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft in NW swell. Moderate NW winds and seas of 2-4 ft are found in the central and southern Gulf of California waters, while weaker winds and slight seas prevail in the northern Gulf of California. Outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, mostly gentle winds and 4-6 ft seas are evident in the rest of the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, high pressure over the NW Gulf of Mexico will force strong to gale force N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Sun morning. Seas will peak near 12 ft tonight. Winds and seas in the Tehuantepec region will then diminish Sun into Mon as the high pressure shifts eastward. Elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters, winds should generally remain moderate or weaker through Mon. Winds in the northern Gulf of California could increase to fresh to strong by Mon night or Tue. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Moderate to locally fresh northeasterly gap winds are present in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas in these waters are 5-6 ft. Moderate northerly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are evident in the Gulf of Panama. Seas of 6 to 7 ft in primarily NW swell are present to the east of the Galapagos Islands. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, moderate easterly winds across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo will strengthen to strong to near gale- force tonight through early next week. Seas will build to 10 ft Sun. Northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse to fresh speeds every night through at least Tue night, except to strong on Sun night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section above for information about the Gale Warning in the far NW waters. Outside of the system described in the Special Features, seas in excess of 8 ft in NW swell are occurring north of 17N and west of 124W. Weak high pressure dominates the remainder of the eastern tropical Pacific. Winds are moderate from about 04N to 17N, with mainly gentle winds elsewhere. Seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail across the remainder of the area, south of 17N. For the forecast aside from Gale Warning area, fresh NE-E winds will spread downstream from the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo, affecting the eastern waters tonight through early next week. Seas will build to 9 ft late Sun. Farther west, winds will increase to fresh to locally strong in the western waters early next week. Seas will build to 11 ft late Mon in NW to N swell. $$ Hagen