254 AXPZ20 KNHC 231601 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Feb 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to move across the Gulf of Mexico today into Sat. The pressure gradient will tighten over the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight as high pressure builds behind the cold front. This will usher in the next gap wind event, with winds forecast to reach gale force tonight through Sat night. Seas will peak near 12 ft Sat night. Winds and seas in the Tehuantepec region will then diminish Sun into early next week. NW Pacific Gale Warning: A 1007 mb gale-force low near 32N135W is producing strong to near gale-force westerly winds and seas to 18 ft in the northwest waters of the eastern Pacific. The low will strengthen quickly today just north of our area and then drift southward into the NW waters during the weekend. Gales with this low are forecast over the NW waters late Sat through Sun morning. Additionally, very large swell generated from this low will propagate southward with the low and continue to impact the NW waters. Seas greater than 12 ft associated with this swell will impact much of the waters north of 20N and west of 130W through late Sun night. Seas will peak near 23 ft Sat night. Conditions will improve Mon as the low weakens and moves north of the area. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial trough extends from eastern Panama near 08N78W to 05N93W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N95W to 06N116W. A surface trough is analyzed along 119/120W, from 03N to 10N. The ITCZ then continues from 05N124W to beyond 00N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is present from 01N to 07N between 90W and 114W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 11N between 113W and 121W, and from 02N to 06N between 125W and 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for information about the Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A weak subtropical ridge prevail over the E Pacific subtropical waters and extends to the Baja California Peninsula, thus supporting light to gentle NNW winds along the offshore waters of Baja California as well as the S and SW Mexican offshores. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. A surface trough over W Mexico tightens the pressure gradient in the Gulf of California and supports moderate to fresh NW winds extending to Jalisco offshore waters and 3-5 ft seas, higher at the entrance of the gulf. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will tighten over the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight as high pressure builds behind a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico. This will usher in the next gap wind event, with winds forecast to reach gale force tonight through Sat night. Seas will peak near 12 ft Sat night. Winds and seas in the Tehuantepec region will then diminish Sun into early next week. Elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters, winds should generally remain moderate or weaker for the next several days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR The pressure gradient across the Gulf of Papagayo continues to support fresh to strong easterly gap winds affecting the basin and downstream to 90W. These winds are also impacting the nearshore waters of southern Nicaragua. Seas in the Papagayo region are 5-8 ft. In the Gulf of Panama, and downstream to 00N, winds are moderate to locally fresh from the NNE with 5-7 ft seas. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly winds, locally to near gale, across and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo will briefly diminish Fri morning before strengthening again Sat night and continuing into at least early next week. Seas will build to 9 ft during the strongest winds. Similarly, fresh to occasionally strong N to NE winds will diminish over the Gulf of Panama Fri morning before returning Sat night and continuing for the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section above for information about the Gale Warning in the far NW waters. A 1023 mb high pressure system over the northern waters dominates the remainder of the eastern Pacific waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds from the ITCZ to 20N and west of 110W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that the strong force winds are found from 08N to 16N and between 125W and 132W. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast aside from Gale Warning area, fresh to occasional strong trade winds north of the ITCZ will will diminish to mainly moderate by late Fri. Areal coverage of seas greater than 8 ft will gradually decay over the next couple of days. $$ Ramos